4.1부동산대책이 나온 직후 저는 이 대책의 효과가 불과 몇 개월 가지 않을 것이라고 전망한 바 있습니다. 당시 썼던 글에서(http://bbs1.agora.media.daum.net/gaia/do/debate/read?bbsId=D125&articleId=669020) 밝혔던 것처럼 부동산시장의 큰 흐름에서 볼 때 정부가 어떤 대책을 내놓는다 한들 효과를 발휘하기 힘든 상황이라고 본 것입니다. 결과는 제가 예상했던 것보다 더 약한 것 같습니다. 4.1대책 직후 부동산시장이 들썩인다고 호들갑 떨던 기득권신문들이 이제는 강남 재건축을 중심으로 다시 집값이 추락하고 있다고 떠들어대고 있으니 말입니다. 조변석개하는 그들의 보도 행태를 보고 있자니 처량하기까지 합니다만, 그 사이 잠재적 하우스푸어 행렬에 뛰어든 사람들을 생각하면 안타깝기 그지없습니다. 그래도 대략 3~6개월 정도의 효과는 있지 않을까 했는데, 불과 ‘2개월 천하로 끝나는 모양입니다.

결국 빠질 거품은 빠질 수밖에 없습니다. 과도한 집값은 결국 정상적인 수준으로 돌아갈 수밖에 없습니다. 물론 이렇게 막대한 부동산 거품이 빠지고 정상으로 돌아가는 과정에서 아무런 충격이 없을 거라고 상상하긴 어렵습니다. 각각 1000조원 가까이 쌓아놓은 공공부채와 가계부채, 그리고 5년 째 거치기간과 상환 만기를 연장해주고 있는 주택대출. ‘부동산 연착륙을 외치며 내놓은 각종 부양책들이 결국 길게 보면 이런 식으로 부동산 경착륙의 에너지를 키우는 과정이었습니다. 이번 4.1대책도 마찬가지입니다. 부동산 거품을 해소하기는커녕 그 과정에서 가계부채를 더 키우고, 가격 조정 과정을 더 지연시키고, 잠재적 하우스푸어들을 더 늘려버렸습니다. 4.1대책의 효과가 끝난 뒤 지연된 만큼 가격 하락 폭은 더 커지고, 침체 기간도 그 만큼 더 길어질 것입니다.

4.1대책 직후 일부 언론이 종합선물세트라고까지 표현했던 대책조차 약발이 없다는 사실을 확인한 사람들의 반응은 어떨까요? 언론에서는 단순히 6월까지인 취득세 감면 종료 시점 때문이라고 그러는데, 과연 그 때문일까요? 혜택 종료 시점이 아직 남았는데도 거래가 위축되면서 다시 하락세로 돌아섰는데, 이게 순전히 취득세 감면 효과 때문일까요? 물론 취득세를 면제한 것이 대책 발표 후 약간의 효과를 발휘하긴 했겠지요. 그런데 취득세를 감면해줘야 겨우 한두 달 거래가 (그것도 큰 흐름에서 볼 때 여전히 바닥 수준이지만) 느는 식으로 부동산시장의 대세를 바꿀 수 있을까요?

부동산시장이 갈 길은 이미 정해져 있습니다. 그러니 일반가계들은 기득권언론들의 선동보도에 더 이상 휘둘리지 마시고, 오히려 다가올 충격에 대비하는 자세가 필요합니다. 그리고 정부는 이제라도 건설업자들과 금융업체, 부동산 부자들 중심의 부동산 대책을 폐기해야 합니다. 저출산고령화 시대, 저서장 저소득 시대, 1인가구 급증 시대의 달라진 주택패러다임을 인식하고 이에 걸맞은 부동산정책을 내놓기를 바랍니다. 그렇지 않으면 개인 차원에서뿐만 아니라 국민경제 차원에서 엄청난 혼란과 고통이 가중될 수밖에 없습니다.

 

 

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by 선대인 2013. 6. 10. 10:37
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  • Haywardcew 2013.06.11 07:18 ADDR EDIT/DEL REPLY


    Seagate GoFlex Satellite Reviews | Storage Generate Reviews



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  • Hunterprk 2013.06.11 07:18 ADDR EDIT/DEL REPLY


    HP EliteBook 2560p Review | Electronic Developments Critiques


    <p>This is HPs flagship business ultraportable &#8212 which means, in the eyes of fanatics, its 1 of the most interesting laptops the company tends to make. A pricetag of over $1,000, however, may place a damper on some purchasers pleasure. For that can of dough, buyers will be anticipating a transportable workhorse.</p>
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    <h3>Ready for marathon typists</h3>
    <p>The 2560p may be little due to its twelve.five-inch show, but the keyboard is obviously designed for use for lengthy intervals of time. Keys are not massive, but big enough. Key feel is on the rigid side, but enables for precise typing. Youll have to place in a great deal of effort to produce keyboard flex. Like all EliteBooks, the 2560 utilizes a magnesium-alloy body that gives it remarkably stiffness and durability weve noticed a developed man stand on 1 without putting so a lot as a dent in it. Thats the kind of durability you pay a top quality for in a business-rugged notebook.</p>
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    <p>All of the standard matte display flaws apply, however. While nearly usually legible, the show never appears particularly bright even when established to maximum. Colors have small punch, an issue thats most apparent when taking part in films or video games. Black degree and gradient check images confirmed poor performance general and there was some noticeable banding in the darker fifty percent of the gradient test picture. If you want to appreciate media, purchase an additional laptop.</p>
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  • Haywardjaz 2013.06.11 07:19 ADDR EDIT/DEL REPLY


    PortableOne EX Review (pics, specs)


    <P><STRONG>Introduction </STRONG></P> <P>I am presently a pupil who has been&nbspwanting to get a notebook for fairly some time now.&nbsp I spent about 3 months searching for a great high quality notebook, that could consider a small beating.&nbsp At initial I was looking for a desktop replacement notebook that experienced everything but a big display and desktop processor.&nbsp I initially was conserving up for the Transportable 1 MX, but when I saw the EX, I understood it was the ideal balance of power for cash.&nbsp I am not trying to discourage the MX but I have small to no interest in gaming on a notebook.&nbsp The EX is a 14" widescreen notebooks, weighing in at 5.5 lbs.&nbsp It is a good size for someone who is continuously carrying a notebook with them and does not want a display size too small. </P> <P><STRONG>Bought from. Portable 1: </STRONG></P> <P>I arrived across Transportable One, trying to discover a inexpensive Fujitsu reseller.&nbsp Their choice of notebooks appeared limited and following a couple of mouse clicks I handed the internet site not understanding that I would return months later on.&nbsp When I returned, I checked out their Fujitsu notebooks again, but noticed the Portable One notebook tab.&nbsp I have by no means listened to of Portable One notebooks and what I discovered was an awesome treasure.&nbsp Transportable One buys whitebooks, notebooks with out large brand names plastered over them and customizes them to consumer specs, maintaining the consumer in mind.&nbsp They currently have four lines of notebooks:</P> <UL> <LI>The UX series: THE ultra portable with awesome battery life. </LI> <LI>The MX sequence: A gamer's dream notebook in a very transportable package. </LI> <LI>The SR sequence: A rugged yet fashionable notebook for street warriors and the army. </LI> <LI>The EX sequence: A toned down MX notebooks, without a devoted video card. </LI></UL> <P>Transportable One is also one of the only notebook makers that provides the option of getting an outside show.&nbsp Although the upgrade appears worth it for people working in a developing with a lot of windows or&nbspwants to&nbspuse&nbsptheir notebook outside, I am not one of these individuals. The EX arrives with a totally free bag, wireless mouse, Nero cd software, Drivers CD, PowerDVD, Power Administration software, System Restore CD, Media Exhibits.&nbsp Windows XP Professional and System Suite six were an added package.</P> <P>(see big picture)</P> <P>The PortableOne [url=http://www.achatbatteries.fr/batterie-ASUS-K62J.html]Batterie ASUS K62J[/url] EX was bought with the following specs :</P> <UL> <LI>Intel (Sonoma) 750 1.86 GHz </LI> <LI>512MB DDR2 RAM </LI> <LI>Intel 128MB shared VRAM graphics</LI> <LI>60GB (5,400 RPM) Hard generate </LI> <LI>fourteen.one" (1280 x 768) Indoor WXGA screen </LI> <LI>DVD/CDRW Generate </LI> <LI>With Windows XP Pro. </LI></UL> <P>The ram is upgradable to the optimum of two gigabytes. The hard generate can be configured to a max of one hundred gigabytes and&nbsp7200 RPM.&nbsp There is an option for a&nbspDual Layer DVDRW. An working method is optional, and I initially ordered it without and did not understand that was the situation! </P> <P>Notebooks comparable to the Transportable 1 EX </P> <UL> <LI>Sony FJ series </LI> <LI>Levono Z60t Thinkpad </LI> <LI>Portable 1 MX sequence </LI> <LI>Acer TravelMate 3201XCi </LI> <LI>Apple iBook 14"</LI> <LI>Fujitsu S6240 </LI></UL> <P><STRONG>Design </STRONG></P> <P><EM>The Lid of the EX. The battery is the white attachment.(</EM><EM>view large image</EM><EM>)</EM></P> <P><EM>Still left side of the EX, equipped with two USB ports, VGA adapter, Gigabit Ethernet, Modem, CD/DVD player, and some thing you can connect a lock to. (</EM><EM>view large image</EM><EM>)</EM></P> <P><EM>The correct side of the notebook, has a energy plug in, head telephone jack, microphone jack, S-Video clip adapter, SD card reader, Computer card slot, 4-pin firewire, and USB port.&nbsp Also be aware the energy button is on the hinge. (</EM><EM>view big image</EM><EM>)</EM></P> <P><EM>Under side of the EX, where a hard generate, RAM and CPU can be discovered. (</EM><EM>view big picture</EM><EM>)</EM>Based on Asus's Z63a whitebook, the EX series differs somewhat&nbspfrom the similar MX sequence.&nbsp The MX has a dedicated graphics card while the EX does not, the EX does not have Bluetooth regular like the MX&nbsp(but it is an option if requested), and the MX&nbsplid is produced out of a stronger material.&nbsp&nbsp The EX's physique is a mild slate grey, with a mild gray trim around the edges.&nbsp The battery pack is a pearly white that prospects to a little distinction with the hood of the notebook.&nbsp There are two sets of five hot key buttons, both located on opposite sides of the keyboard.&nbsp&nbsp The two mouse buttons are joined together and are not separate buttons.&nbsp On the correct hinge is the energy button.&nbsp And in the bottom still left corners are four LEDS three of them glowing blue and 1 orange.&nbsp The 3 USB ports have alright places, with one on the correct side close to the 4-pin firewire and S-Video ports, and two situated right by the VGA port which is on the rear left hand corner.&nbsp The two in the back again are fairly near to every other, and it is difficult to unplug the base one with out moving the notebook if you have some thing plugged in on the upper one.&nbsp The sturdiness is fairly higher up there, due to a small stupidity on my part the EX had a 3 foot drop to a cement flooring, a little scratch and that was it in phrases of harm.&nbsp The front lid, although not the strongest lid out there, provides little flex and requires some effort to cause ripples in the Lcd screen. </P> <P><EM>Front view of PortableOne EX (</EM><EM>view big image</EM><EM>)</EM></P> <P><STRONG>Show </STRONG></P> <P>The indoor Lcd screen on the EX is awesome in a dim environment, but simply because of the shiny display, if a mild is shining straight toward the screen, it is reflected right back at you.&nbsp Some individuals may find that annoying. 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GHz Pentium M) &nbsp1m 36s &nbspFujitsu LifeBook N3510 (1.seventy three GHz Pentium M) &nbsp1m 48s &nbspDell Inspiron 6000D (1.6 GHz Pentium M) &nbsp1m 52s &nbspDell Inspiron 600M (one.six GHz Pentium M) &nbsp2m 10s <STRONG>&nbsp</STRONG>HP Pavilion dv4000&nbsp(one.86 GHz Pentium M) &nbsp1m 39s &nbspHP DV4170us (Pentium M one.73 GHz) &nbsp1m 53s &nbspSony VAIO S380 (one.86 GHz Pentium M) &nbsp1m 45s</TBODY></P> <P><STRONG>Consumer Assistance </STRONG></P> <P>For the sake of comprehending the praise that goes on about Portable 1, I gave the customer support at Portable One a try.&nbsp They are awesome, leading notch.&nbsp I asked a number of questions and received the answer by the subsequent day, they did an excellent job of making sure that I comprehended what was going on, if I asked.&nbsp Unfortunately I forgot to add an OS to my notebook on the ordering web page and via a fast e-mail that was altered.&nbsp Even though it added a small hold off in transport, I believe it was worth it.&nbsp There was a little error of the web website not stating my notebook was delivered, and I started to worry.&nbsp It turns out, they despatched me and email saying it was shipped and I overlooked it.&nbsp Just beware that if you buy any of their notebooks it may not be delivered the day you purchased it.&nbsp They configure and make sure your notebook is operating without any problems prior to transport.&nbsp If you have any questions about their notebooks, really feel free to give them a call, their customer service is amazing. </P> <P><STRONG>Pros:</STRONG> </P> <UL> <LI>Under $1,five hundred </LI> <LI>Awesome Screen </LI> <LI>Very transportable </LI> <LI>Tough </LI> <LI>Battery lifestyle </LI> <LI>Awesome style </LI></UL> <P><STRONG>Cons: </STRONG></P> <UL> <LI>Should buy on-line - Alright this might not be a issue with some, but it bother others. </LI> <LI>The Perform Key and Control Important are switched. </LI> <LI>USB ports on the upper still left hand corner can be a little bit difficult to plug two things in. </LI></UL>
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