"소득대비 집값 낮다는데…"와닿지 않는 통계

 

http://media.daum.net/economic/newsview?newsid=20121107070505048

 

 

개인적으로도 여러 토론에서 마주친 적 있는 한양대 모 교수가 순진한 사람들 헷갈리게 만드는 보고서를 또 하나 들고 나왔다. 한 달 반 전 국민은행 토론회에서 처음 이 자료를 내놓더니, 이후에도 여러 곳에서 같은 내용을 설파하고 있는 모양이다. 시간이 없어서 이 엉터리주장에 대한 반박을 자세히는 못 쓰지만 한마디로 기만적이라는 건 분명하다. 짧게 몇 가지만 지적해보자.

 

우선, 수도권의 소득대비 집값(PIR) 낮다는 주장 끌어낸 한양대 교수 주장의 가장 큰 문제점은 2010년 거래된 주택가격의 중위값을 사용한 것이다. 2010년이면 거래 침체기라 집값 싼 중소형 위주로 거래됐는데, 중소형 주택의 시세가 당연히 낮을 수밖에 없다. 이 경우 수도권의 주택시세를 실제보다 크게 과소평가하게 되는 것은 말할 나위 없다.

 

PIR 산정시 한양대 교수는 다가구단독 주택을 자가 주택이 아니어서 제외했다고 하는데, 국토부 주택보급률 계산에도 들어가는 주택을 제외했다. 다가구단독 주택 시세도 상대적으로 높은데 이걸 제외하고 계산해 소득 대비 집값 낮은 것으로 계산했다.

 

이처럼 소득대비집값(PIR)은 계산을 위한 대상 범위를 어떻게 조정하느냐에 따라 값이 크게 달라질 수 있다. 한양대 교수는 한국 집값이 낮게 나올 수밖에 없는 방식으로 계산했다. 조금만 방법을 달리하면 PIR값을 두 배 정도로 키울 수도 있다.

 

소득대비집값(PIR)은 나라별 특성에 따라 비교 방법이 일률적이지 않아 국제 비교는 제한적으로 참고 삼아 보는 것으로 해야 한다. PIR 값은 국제비교보다는 시기에 따라 한 국민경제 또는 지역 안에서 소득대비 집값이 어떻게 달라지는지 추이를 보여주는 지표다. 시기별로 이 값이 얼마나 커지는지에 따라 소득 대비 얼마나 집값이 얼마나 과도한지 여부를 살펴보는 것이 기본 용도다.

 

그런데 의도적으로 PIR 값이 낮아질 수 있는 방법을 적용해 그 값을 구한 뒤 집값이 높은 다른 나라 도시들과 억지로 비교하고 있으니 넌센스에 가깝다. 그가 몇 년 동안 집값 안 떨어진다고 주장해온 근거가 이런 것들이니 왜 그가 부동산시장 현실과 동떨어진 주장을 몇 년 째 해오고 있는지 이해가 된다.

선대인경제연구소(www.sdinomics.com) 99% 1%에 속지 않는 정직한 정보를 제공합니다. 연구소의 연간 구독회원이 되시면 경제를 보는 안목을 키우는 한편 연구소의 정직한 목소리를 후원하실 수 있습니다.

 

 

by 선대인 2012. 11. 8. 11:07
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