연구소에서 부동산 거품이 빠르게 꺼지고 있는 국내 부동산 시장을 종합 진단하고 미래를 전망하는 <특집이슈보고서: 10년후 한국 부동산> 을 작성중입니다. 보고서 작성 과정에서 사용하고 있는 전국 시군구별 아파트 단지의 실거래가 가운데, 강남구와 노원구의 주요 아파트 실거래가 추이를 공개합니다. 이 추이를 보면 이미 서울의 강남과 강북의 주택 가격 상승을 주도했던 지역의 아파트 가격이 빠른 속도로 하락하고 있음을 알 수 있을 겁니다.

지금처럼 부동산 가격이 대세하락기에 접어들었을 때는 실거래가를 살펴보는 것이 부동산시장 현실을 올바로 이해하는데 매우 중요합니다. 언론이나 정부당국이 주로 보도하거나 참고하는 국민은행과 부동산정보업체들의 가격 지수는 모두 호가 위주의 지수여서 현재 국내 부동산 시장의 실태를 제대로 반영하고 있지 못하기 때문입니다.

부동산 가격이 상승할 때에는 호가와 매매가격이 거의 일치하지만 부동산 가격이 하락할 때에는 호가와 매매가격 간에 상당한 괴리가 발생합니다. 일례로, 2008년 말 금융위기 직후 경기지역 아파트가격은 불과 6개월 사이에 실거래가 기준으로 -14.9% 하락한 반면 같은 시기 호가 위주로 작성되는 국민은행 아파트가격 지수는 -4%밖에 하락하지 않았습니다.

알다시피 부동산 가격이 상승할 때에는 시세차익을 얻기 위한 매물이 거의 호가 그대로 거래가 되니다. 하지만 부동산 가격이 하락할 때에는 매도자가 원하는 호가대로 거래가 이루어지지 않습니다. 잠재적 매수자가 기다리면 더욱 싼 가격에 집을 구입할 수 있기 때문에 결국 가격을 많이 낮춘 급매물 위주로만 거래가 성사되기 때문입니다. 이 때문에 거래량도 줄게 되며, 부동산 가격 하락기에는 급매물은 더 이상 급매물이 아닌 정상적인 매물의 성격을 가지게 되는 것입니다.

이 점 참고하셔서 부동산 거래를 할 때 꼭 실거래가를 확인해 보시기 바랍니다.
일반인이 큰 흐름을 보기에는 다소 불편하지만 국토해양부 실거래가를 확인하려면 다음 링크로 가시면 됩니다 http://rt.mltm.go.kr/
저희 연구소의 정남수 자산시장팀장이 해설하는 지역별 부동산시장 점검 보고서에서 주요 아파트 단지의 실거래가 도표를 소개하고 있으니 참고하시기 바랍니다.


 

 



 




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