수도권을 중심으로 부동산 시장 침체가 극심해지자 한국이 일본식 부동산 거품 붕괴를 겪을 것인지가 다시 논란이 되고 있다. 과도한 가계부채와 소득 정체, 저출산·고령화 여파 등으로 국내 부동산 시장은 2008년 하반기부터 장기 대세 하락 흐름에 들어갔다고 진단해왔다. 그 과정에서 과도한 가계부채를 감당하지 못해 주택 가격이 폭락할 가능성도 배제할 수 없다는 의견이었다. 이를 두고 부동산 업계와 기득권 언론 등에서 ‘좌빨’ 딱지 붙이듯 ‘폭락론자’라는 딱지를 붙이기도 했다. 하지만 전문가로서 상당한 가능성이 있는 일을 경고하지 않을 수 없다.

일부에서는 일본의 부동산 거품은 일시에 폭락했는데 한국은 맥주 거품 빠지듯 서서히 빠질 것이라고 한다. 실제로 국내 대부분의 사람들은 일본의 부동산 거품이 1991년 하반기부터 전국적으로 일시에 폭락한 것으로 착각한다. 하지만 자세히 뜯어보면 실상은 우리가 생각하는 것과 좀 다르다.

<그림1>을 참고로 살펴보자. 우선, 일본 도쿄 시내 23개 구의 지가지수(명목지수) 추이를 보자. 참고로, 일본은 땅값(지가)을 중심으로 통계를 내므로 상업지와 주택지 지가를 따져보는 게 정확하다. 일본의 경우 상업지의 부동산 거품이 심했는데, 상업지에 비해 주택지 부동산 가격 상승폭이 작지만 상승·하락 패턴 자체는 거의 일치한다. 도쿄 시내는 이미 전국의 부동산 거품이 정점에 이른 1991년보다 4년 전인 1987년 폭등세를 마무리하고 거의 정점에 이르러 1988년에 고점을 찍었음을 알 수 있다. 이듬해인 1989년 도쿄 시내 집값이 소폭 하락했으나, 1990~91년에 다시 소폭 반등했다. 하지만 1988년의 정점 수준에까지는 이르지 못했다.

다음으로 한국의 수도권과 비슷한 지역이라고 볼 수 있는 광역도쿄권 지가 추이를 보자. 광역도쿄권은 도쿄 23구와 근교 시나가와현, 지바현 등의 도시를 모두 포함한 지역을 말한다. 이들 지역은 상승폭이 도쿄 시내 23개 구에 비해 완만한 편이지만 비슷한 상승·하락 패턴을 보이고 있다. 1989년 상승이 주춤하다가 1991년까지 연속 2년 정도 완만하게 상승한 뒤 1992년부터 급락하는 것으로 나타난다. 도쿄 23개 구의 상승분을 제외하고 생각해보면 도쿄 23개 구가 상승한 뒤 외곽 지역의 지가가 뒤늦게 따라 올라갔음을 짐작할 수 있다. 도쿄 외에 오사카·나고야 등 일본 6대 도시 및 그 외 도시 지역의 지가 추이를 보면 도쿄권과 달리 1990년까지 지속적으로 지가가 상승한 뒤 1991년 무렵부터 상승세가 꺾이다가 폭락한다. 도쿄의 상승이 마무리된 1988년 이후 다른 도시들이 뒤늦게 따라 올랐음을 알 수 있다.

이를 종합해보자. 집값 상승기 때는 도쿄 외곽을 비롯한 전국 도시의 부동산 가격이 도쿄 23구의 패턴을 2년 정도 시차를 두고 따라 올랐다. 그리고 도쿄 지역의 부동산 가격이 빠지기 시작하자 다른 지역도 시차가 있지만 대체로 동반 하락한 것으로 나타난다. 비유하자면, 용머리(핵심지역)가 치솟아오르면 용꼬리(비핵심지역- 지방)가 따라 오르다가 용머리가 떨어지기 시작하면 다시 용꼬리가 떨어지는 식의 패턴을 보이고 있다.

도쿄 23구를 서울 강남으로 보고, 광역도쿄권을 수도권으로 보면 한국도 비슷한 양상을 보인다. 2007년 초까지 서울 강남 등 버블세븐 지역은 폭등한 뒤 고점 상태에 있었다. 버블세븐의 폭등세가 마무리된 뒤 2008년 중반까지 경기도와 인천, 서울 외곽까지 급등세가 확산됐다. 이후 2008년 말 세계적 경제위기로 수도권 지역이 일시 급락했으나, 이후 주택 가격이 2009년 상반기부터 일정하게 회복되기 시작했다. 하지만 수도권 주택시장은 침체기를 그렸고, 그간 상대적으로 덜 오른 지방으로 주택 가격 오름세가 번져갔다. 처음에는 부산·대전 등 대도시로 번져가더니 이후에는 충남·경남·전북 등 대도시가 아닌 지역까지 번져나갔다. 하지만 지난해 말을 기점으로 이런 지방의 주택 가격 상승세가 일단락되는 분위기다. 그사이 서울 강남의 재건축 등을 중심으로 집값은 꽤 가파른 하락세를 보이고 있다. 이것이 지금까지 진행돼온 과정이다. 일본에서 일어난 용머리·용꼬리의 상승·하락 패턴이 국내에서도 비슷하게 진행돼온 양상이다. 물론 이런 흐름이 향후 일본식의 급락세로 이어질지, 상대적으로 완만한 하락세의 지속으로 나타날지는 미지수다. 하지만 어떤 경우든 장기 대세 하락 흐름은 피해갈 수 없다는 게 나의 생각이다.

향후 주택 가격이 어떤 식으로 흘러가든 이 점만은 염두에 둬야 한다. 일본에서도 부동산 거품이 일순간에 꺼졌던 것은 아니다. 도쿄의 부동산 가격도 정점에서 3~4년가량 버텼지만, 결국 거품 붕괴의 압력을 이기지 못했다. 지금까지 진행돼온 과정만 보고서 한국에서는 일본식 폭락은 일어나지 않을 거라고 속단하기는 아직 이르다는 것이다.

그리고 더 중요한 것은 이미 국내 부동산 거품이 심각한 상태에서 부동산 거품을 키우지 않고, 하우스푸어를 양산하지 않는 것이다. 그런데 안타깝게도 지난 몇 년 동안 부동산 시장이나 이에 대한 정부 대응은 큰 틀에서 내가 경고하거나 우려한 대로 흘러왔다. 그사이 나는 조금이라도 일찍 시작해 단계적으로 부동산 거품을 빼나가자고 제안해왔다. 하지만 현 정부는 ‘연착륙’을 부르짖으면서도 사실상 부동산 거품을 키우는 정책을 펼쳐왔다. 그 결정판이 얼마 전 청와대에서 장장 9시간여에 걸쳐 진행한 ‘끝장토론’ 직후 총부채상환비율(DTI) 규제 부분 완화와 골프장 개별소비세 인하 등이었다. 자기 임기 안에만 가계부채, 부동산 거품 폭탄이 터지지 않으면 된다는 식의 사고방식에서 나온 임기응변적 대응이었다. 그 결과 이명박 정부는 폭탄을 다음 정권에 떠넘길 수 있을지 모르겠다. 하지만 부동산 거품과 가계부채는 더더욱 부풀어오를 수밖에 없을 것이다. 무서운 일이다.

 

 

선대인경제연구소에서 광복절을 맞아 8월말까지 <프리미엄리포트> 회원으로 가입하시는 분들께 선대인소장이 집필한 <문제는 경제다>를 증정하는 행사를 실시하니 많은 이용 바랍니다.

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