최근의 물가 오름세와 관련해 토요일인 8일 MBC 라디오와 전화 인터뷰했습니다. 그 내용을 토대로 최근 고물가 상황에 대해 정리해봤습니다. 참고 바랍니다.

 



1.먼저 이 같은 물가 급등 현상이 발생하고 있는 원인에 대해 알아보죠. 외부변수와 국내요인 어떤 것들이 물가 급등에 영향을 미치고 있나요.


세계적인 원자재값 급등현상 및 국제원유가 고공행진이나 세계적으로 유동성이 증가한 점 등 외부적 요인들의 영향도 있을 수 있고 또 경기 회복기에 대다수 국민들의 소득이 높아져 수요가 왕성하여 물가가 오르는 경우도 있을 수 있죠. 하지만 지금 국내에서 나타나고 있는 물가 상승은 외부적인 요인이나 일정한 경기회복세를 반영한 물가 상승과는 거리가 있습니다. 지난 2008년 글로벌 금융위기 이후 지속되고 있는 물가 상승의 원인은 유가나 철광석 등 원자재가격의 상승 외에도 지나치게 높은 환율, 잘못된 금리정책, 과다한 공적부채, 독과점적 시장구조 등 대부분이 국내 정책 실패에 기인하고 있습니다.


예를 들어, 2008년 금융위기 직전에 유가는 배럴당 140달러를 넘었으며 환율도 달러당 1,300원대 이상으로 치솟았습니다. 그러나 최근에는 유가는 배럴당 80달러 대에 환율도 1,100원대를 유지하고 있습니다. 그런데 국내 유가는 2008년의 배럴당 140달러를 넘는 때보다 더 오르는 모습입니다. 이는 대기업들의 독과점 담합 때문인데, 정부 정치권에서 근본구조를 고치지 않고 있습니다.


또한 집세의 대부분을 차지하는 전세가의 경우에도 지난해 말 이후 주택 가격이 하향세를 보임에 따라 상승세가 떨어졌으나 정부가 지난해 8.29 대책에서 DTI규제 등을 해제하는 등의 조치로 부동산 가격을 떠받치면서 최근으로 올수록 전세가 상승률이 커지는 모습을 나타내고 있습니다.


공공요금 인상 압력이 대표적. 그런가 하면 이명박정부 출범 이후 정부와 공기업 등 공적부문의 부채는 4대강사업이네 뭐네 하면서 온갖 사기적 토건사업을 질러대는 바람에 총 450조원(기은과 산은 포함시 520조원) 가량이나 폭증했습니다. 이처럼 공적부문의 채무가 폭증하자 정부와 공기업들의 지급이자 부담도 급증하게 되었습니다. 이자를 갚기 어렵게 되자, 일제히 전기요금과 수도요금, 가스요금 등을 올렸습니다.


2.사실 글로벌 경제위기를 돌파하기 위해 세계 각국 정부들이 적극적인 양적완화, 그러니까 시장에 풍부한 유동성을 공급하면서 인플레이션 우려가 꾸준히 제기돼 오지 않았습니까. 우리나라도 오랜 시간 저금리 고환율 정책을 유지해왔고요. 최근 한국은행이 올해 통화정책을 물가안정에 초점을 맞추겠다, 이렇게 발표했는데요. 저금리 고환율 기조의 통화 정책에 어떤 변화가 있을까요.


경제위기 전 기준금리가 5.25%이던 것을 2.0%까지 내렸다가 지난해 두 차례 올려 현재 2.5% 수준입니다. 하지만 그동안 한국은행의 통화 공급 확대와 정부의 대규모 공공부채를 통한 부양책으로 시중 유동성이 급증했습니다. 그런데 이런 저금리 정책을 너무 오래 사용해서 성실히 저축한 사람들에게 세금을 물려서 부채를 지고 투기한 사람은 보조금을 주는 꼴이 됩니다. 2008년 말과 같은 경제위기 때야 비상조치로 금리를 낮춘다 하더라도 정부 주장대로 경기회복세가 견조하다면 이 같은 비상조치는 점진적으로 정상화해야 하는데, 정상화의 속도가 너무 더딥니다. 이 같은 저금리가 물가 인상 압력으로 작용하는 것은 당연합니다. 따라서 현재 수준보다 기준금리를 이미 더 올렸어야 하는데 방치하고 있다가 물가 앙등이 계속되니 이제야 통화당국이 부랴부랴 통화정책 변경의 필요성을 이야기하고 있습니다. 하지만 현 정부가 올해도 성장위주 정책을 공언한 상태이고 한국은행의 정책 자율성이 많이 훼손된 상태여서 당장 1월에 기준금리를 올릴지 의문입니다. 정부가 범부처 차원의 물가관리 대책을 내놓는 게 13일로 한국은행의 금융통화운영위원회 날짜와 겹칩니다. 정부가 행정력을 동원해 물가를 잡을 테니 한은은 기준금리 인상을 좀 더 미루라는 압력을 행사하는 듯합니다.



3.정부는 올해도 목표 경제성장률을 5%로 잡으며 경제성장에 집중한다는 방침에 변화가 없는 거 같아요. 그러면서도 물가는 3% 수준으로 억제해 경제성장과 물가 두 마리 토끼를 모두 잡겠다는 의지를 보이고 있는데. 어떻습니까. 현 상황에서 정부의 이런 계획이 충분히 실현 가능하다고 보시는지요.



불가능하진 않지만 두 가지 과제가 상충되는 과제인데다 이미 물가 인상 압력이 매우 강한 상태여서 현실적으로는 매우 어려워 보입니다. 만약 억지로 달성하려 한다면 매우 무리한 것으로 보입니다. 이미 지난해 전체로 소비자물가상승률은 3.5% 올랐습니다. 한은의 물가관리 목표치가 지난해 초 이유도 없이 바뀌어 2~4%이지만, 바뀌기 전에는 2.5~3.5%였습니다. 바뀌기 전 목표치의 상한을 친 것입니다. 이미 한은이 물가관리에 실패하고 있는 것입니다.


이처럼 물가가 오르는 것을 신체에 비유하자면 몸에 열이 나는 등 이상징후가 나타나고 있다는 것입니다. 그러면 열이 더 오르기 전에 물가 인상을 막아야 하는데, 현 정부는 계속 성장 지상주의에 빠져서 기준금리는 낮은 상태로 묶어두면서 공정거래위원회 등을 동원한 70,80년대식 물가 억제 정책 수준에 머물고 있습니다. 시대착오적인 단기 미봉책일 뿐입니다. 이런 식으로는 물가 안정세를 지속할 수 없습니다. 계속 임시미봉책으로 다스리면 결국 몸에 심각한 탈이 나게 돼 있습니다. 경제성장률은 경제발전의 양적 지표라면, 물가는 질적 지표입니다. 저는 올해 정부의 5% 대 성장이 가능할지도 의문이지만, 설사 물가 안정을 희생해 경제성장을 할 수 있다 하더라도 물가 앙등으로 서민들에게 계속 고통을 안긴다면 그런 성장이 무슨 의미가 있습니까.  



4.물가 동향을 살펴보면요. 지난해에는 배추를 비롯한 채소값이 급등세를 보였습니다. 연말에는 휘발율값이 큰 폭의 오름세를 보였고요. 올 들어서는 특히 설탕과 세제, 밀가루 등 생필품 값의 상승세가 두드러지는데요. 앞으로 어떤 품목들이 물가 인상을 주도할 것으로 보시는지요.


공공요금 인상이 매우 심각해질 것입니다. 이미 현 정부 출범 이후 가스공사, 철도공사, 전력공사, 수자원공사 등의 부채가 두 배 이상 늘어나 있습니다. 사실상 각 공기업들이 빚더미에 올라 있는 상태입니다.  겉으로 드러나는 성장률 끌어올리고 부동산 거품 떠받치기 위해 기준금리를 낮추는 대신 공기업들 요금 인상을 억누르는 한편 각종 무리한 개발사업에 동원되거나 억지로 인상을 하지 않은 탓입니다. 공공요금을 주요 수입원으로 하는 공기업들이 현 정부 출범 이후 급증한 부채로 허덕이는 가운데 영업이익과 당기순이익 등이 대체로 악화되는 모습을 보이고 있어서 정부 재정을 지원하거나 그렇지 않다면 결국 공공요금을 상당폭 인상하지 않을 수 없는 상황에 내몰리고 있습니다.


정부가 최근의 물가 인상 압력을 저금리와 고환율, 높은 부동산 가격 등을 조정해 정공법으로 풀지 않고 당장 고성장 생색내기 욕심에 빠져 찍어 누르기식 단기 공공요금 억제책 등으로 대응한다고 해봐야 오래 지탱할 수 없습니다. 공공요금 인상을 억제한다는 핑계로 관련 공기업들의 요금인상 요구를 거부하면 결국 정부 재정으로 지원할 수밖에 없는 양상이 됩니다. 그런데 정부 재정은 결국 국민의 세금이 원천이라는 점에서 결국 어떤 식으로든 국민의 부담을 늘리는 식으로 귀결될 수밖에 없습니다. 이처럼 속이 뻔히 보이는 상황인데도 현 정부는 근원적 대책을 쓰기보다는 단기 미봉책으로 국민의 눈을 속이려 하고 있는 것입니다.    



5.물가를 잡기 위해 정부가 다각도의 노력을 기울이고 있어요. 공정위가 조직을 물가감시 중심체제로 개편하고 국토부와 교육과학기술부도 물가 감시에 동참한다고 밝혔는데요. 올해 물가 전망 어떻습니까. 계속해서 오름세를 보일 것으로 보이는지 시간이 지나면 차츰 안정세로 돌아설 것으로 보시는지요.

 

 

이대통령이 '물가와의 전쟁'을 거론하자 공정거래위원회는 사무처장 직속의 물가대책반을 구성해 물가단속에 총력을 기울이겠다고 선언하고 나섰다. 언론 보도에 따르면 김동수 공정위원장은 "공정위가 물가기관이라는 것을 이해하지 못하는 직원은 색출해 인사조처하겠다"는 황당한 발언까지 내놓았다고 한다. 기업들의 독과점과 담합을 분쇄하고 공정거래 질서를 확립해야 할 공정위가 본연의 역할은 접어두고 기업들에 대한 자신들의 권한을 이용해 억지로라도 물가 단속에 나서겠다고 하니 70~80년대 관치 경제를 떠올릴 수밖에 없는 것이다. 이뿐만 아니라 다른 정부부처들도 제각기 각종 행정력을 동원한 물가대책을 내놓는 등 전 부처가 갑자기 물가잡기경쟁에 나서고 있다. 이미 지난해 하반기부터 본격적으로 누적되기 시작한 물가상승 압력을 생각할 때 한은이 이미 기준금리를 지금보다 더 높은 수준까지 인상했어야 했지만 현 정부의 부동산 거품 떠받치기와 '무조건 성장제일주의' 때문에 올릴 수 없는 상황이었다. 이처럼 한은이 본연의 임무인 물가 관리를 희생해 현 정부의 성장 기조를 추종하다 보니 대신 공정위가 '물가관리부처'가 되는 등 전 부처가 물가 단속에 나서는 웃지 못할 코미디가 연출되고 있는 것이다.


현 정부가 두더지게임 하듯이 자장면 값이나 치킨 값 같은 것만 잡지 말고 대다수 국민들의 소득에 비해 너무 높은 부동산 가격을 낮춰야 한다. 생산원가에 큰 영향을 미치는 부동산 비용만 낮춰도 국내 물가가 지금처럼 계속 높아지지는 않을 것이다. 또한 이미 지난해 환율효과로 사상 최대 매출을 올린 수출대기업을 지원하기 위해 수입 인플레를 유발해 국내 물가에 부담을 주는 인위적 환율 떠받치기도 이제는 중단해야 한다. 또한 공정위가 자신들의 힘을 이용해 물가억제에 나서는 시대착오적 행태는 그만두고 국내 각 부문별로 난무하는 재벌기업의 독과점과 담합 행위를 철저히 분쇄해 나간다면 중장기적으로 시장경쟁을 통해 자연스레 가격 인하 효과가 발생하게 된다. 물론 지나치게 풀린 유동성과 경기 회복세에 따른 수요 증가 효과 등을 감안하면 기준금리를 현실화하는 것도 더 늦출 수 없다. 이처럼 경제구조를 정상으로 되돌리는 근원적 대책을 쓰지 않고 시대착오적인 미봉책만 써서는 효과도 없을 뿐더러 장기적으로 한국경제 전반에 더 큰 충격과 혼란을 초래할 뿐이다.


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최근 <프리라이더: 대한민국 세금의 비밀편>을 출간했습니다. 우리가 낸 세금이 우리 아이들의 고픈 배를 채우지는 못하고 '형님'과 건설족들의 배를 불리는데 쓰이는 현실에 분개하고 이 같은 현실을 타개하기 위한 '납세자혁명'을 모색하시는 분들의 일독을 권합니다.  

 김광수경제연구소포럼(http://cafe.daum.net/kseriforum)

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