정부나 국책연구소 등이 올해 경제성장률을 대체로 6% 전후로 전망하고 있다. 올 2분기 실질GDP 성장률이 전분기 대비 연환산 6%, 지난해 동기 대비로 7.6%를 기록했으니 크게 어긋날 전망은 아닐 것이다. 이 같은 전망치는 G20회의 참가국 가운데 다섯 번째로 높은 수준이라고 한다. 지표로만 보면 이명박 대통령이 대선 때 내세운 ‘747공약’까지는 아니더라도 ‘경제대통령’ 이미지가 전혀 허황된 것은 아닌 것처럼 비칠지 모르겠다. 

 

하지만 이는 빛 좋은 개살구다. 한국경제가 이처럼 빠른 성장을 하고 있는 것은 대부분 환율효과와 공공부채 증가 때문이다. 먼저 환율효과를 따져보면, 올들어 한국경제 성장의 상당 부분은 급격한 수출 성장에 의존하고 있다. 수출이 급성장한 결정적 요인 중 하나는 원달러 환율이 급등한 덕분이다. 원달러 환율은 2008년 경제위기 전에는 달러당 900원대 초반이었다가 1100원대 후반을 유지하고 있다. 일본 엔화처럼 원화가 강세를 나타내 900원대에서 700원대까지 갔다면 지금 한국의 수출이 버틸 수 있을 것인가. 900원대로 현상유지가 됐더라도 삼성전자 등이 사상 최대의 실적을 올릴 수 있었을까.

 

하지만 이보다 더 중요한 요인은 공공부채 증가다. 이명박정부가 출범한 2008년부터 올해 7월말까지 국채와 비금융 공기업채를 합한 국공채 발행은 200조원 가량 급증했다. 정부가 건설 및 부동산 경기 부양 등의 명목으로 막대한 빚을 끌어다 쓴 것이다. 각종 PF사업이나 보금자리주택사업 등에 동원된 한국토지주택공사나 4대강사업에 동원된 수자원공사가 합쳐서 50조원 가량의 채권을 발행한 게 대표적이다.

 

김대중, 노무현 정부 때도 국공채 발행이 적지 않았지만, 이명박정부처럼 이렇게 마구잡이로 빚을 늘리지는 않았다. 국제적으로 비교해봐도, 한국의 GDP 대비 재정부양책 규모가 세계경제위기의 진앙지인 미국에 이어 OECD 2위 수준이다. 재정부양책만 따져서 그런데, 공기업을 포함한 공공부문 전체 부양책 규모는 세계 1위일 것이다. 

 

이처럼 지금 경제성장의 대부분은 민간 자력이 아닌 환율효과와 공공부문 부채로 빚어낸 것이다. 200조원은 GDP 규모의 20% 수준이다. 단순화하자면 200조원을 길거리에 그냥 뿌려도 지금까지 누적 경제성장률이 최소 20%는 됐어야 정상이다. 그런데 올해를 제외하고 현 정부 출범 이후 경제성장률은 초라하기 짝이 없다. 더 큰 문제는 현 정부가 막대한 빚으로 생색낸 뒤 빚잔치를 할 시점이 되면 한국경제는 매우 큰 고통을 겪을 수밖에 없다는 점이다.

 

속사정이 이런데도 현 정부는 G20회의 개최를 두고 “전세계가 한국의 경제위기 극복 성공경험을 배우러 오는 것”이라며 너스레를 떨고 있다. 회원국이 돌아가며 개최하는 연례성 회의를 일찍 유치한 것을 두고 ‘국격’ 운운하며 우쭐대는 것은 꼴불견이다. 비유하자면, 이미 수억원의 빚을 진 가계가 부채 다이어트는 전혀 안하고 수억원의 빚을 더 끌어와 몇 년 더 흥청망청하는 것을 자랑하는 꼴이니 말이다.

 

이런 와중에 삼성경제연구소는 G20회의 개최에 따른 경제적 가치가 중장기적으로 24조원 이상이라며 정부를 한껏 추어주는 보고서를 16일 발표했다. 24조면 경제성장률을 2% 끌어올리는 수준이다. 정말 그런 효과가 있다면 각 정권은 요란하게 다른 경제정책 할 필요 없이 이런 행사만 유치하면 된다. 매년 두세 건만 유치하면 경제가 4%, 6% 추가 성장할 테니 모든 경제부처를 폐지하고 ‘국제회의유치부’만 두면 될 것이다. 하지만 지난해 G20회의를 개최한 미국 피츠버그의 지역경제라도 좋아졌다는 말을 들어본 적이 없다.

 

이런 엉터리 보고서를 자칭 대한민국 최고 연구소라는 곳에서 버젓이 내놓고 상당수 언론이 무비판적으로 보도하고 있으니 떼거리로 꼴불견이다. ‘빚쟁이 대통령’으로 지탄받아야 할 대통령이 ‘경제대통령’으로 포장되는데는 이런 한심한 현실이 놓여 있는 것이다.

 

 

 


선대인 트위터 http://twitter.com/kennedian3 

김광수경제연구소포럼(http://cafe.daum.net/kseriforum)


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