지난해 10월 이후 아파트 신규 분양시장과 기존 주택시장이 동시에 침체로 접어든 데 이어 최근으로 올수록 주택 가격이 가파르게 떨어지고 있다. 이에 따라 지난해 하반기만 해도‘집값이 바닥을 쳤다’‘이제는 대세 상승이다’라고 주장했던 많은 부동산 투기 선동가들이 연초에 주택시장 침체가 계속되자 ‘상저하고’라는 식으로 말을 바꿨다. 그러더니 이제 와서는 또 다시 온갖 궤변과 요설을 동원하고 있다. ‘대세상승은 끝났다. 하지만 폭락은 없다’ ‘그래도 오를 곳은 오른다’는 식으로 말을 바꾸고 있다. 그러면서도 “오히려 주택시장이 침체인 지금이 집을 사야 할 타이밍”이라며 뼈 속까지 선동꾼 기질이 다분한 사람들도 여전히 있다.


왜 이른바 ‘부동산 재테크 전문가(=부동산 투기 선동가)’라는 사람들과 상당수 부동산 담당 기자들은 틀린 것으로 드러난 주장들을 계속 되풀이하고 있을까? 여러 가지 설명이 있을 수 있는데, 이 가운데 다섯 가지만 살펴보자. 물론 이 다섯가지는 각기 따로 작용하는 것이 아니라 서로 연결돼 상승작용을 일으킨다는 점을 유념하자.

 


1. 이해관계:

필자가 여러 차례 설명했지만, 가장 기본적으로는 이해관계 때문이다. 부동산 정보업체들이나 언론사들이나 아파트 분양광고가 가져다주는 매출 비중이 너무나 크다. 신문사의 경우 사주가 부동산 재벌인 곳이 많다. 부동산 정보업체나 컨설팅업체 관계자들은 기본적으로 부동산시장이 죽으면 밥 벌어먹기가 어렵다. 이들은 “재테크는 기본적으로 오른다고 해야 장사가 된다”는 말을 공공연히 하고 다닌다.


기업체 차원의 이해관계뿐만 아니라 기자 개개인이 강력한 이해관계를 가진 경우도 많다. 기자들 사이에 건설업체들의 상시적인 접대를 당연시하는 문화가 만연해 있지만 스스로 투기를 한 경우도 많다. 필자가 아는 A신문의 재테크 팀장은 지난해 하반기에 기존에 집을 갖고 있으면서 강남 재건축을 한 채 더 살까 타진하고 있었다. 필자가 아는 B신문의 산업부 데스크는 빚을 잔뜩 지고 수 년 전 강남 재건축 아파트에 ‘올인’한 상태였다. 또 경제지인 C신문의 부동산 담당 기자는 강북에 살면서 강남 재건축에 빚을 내 투자한 경우인데, 이 기자는 ‘다른 곳은 몰라도 강남3구는 안 떨어진다’는 이른바 강남불패론을 여러 차례 기사화했다. 그의 ‘희망사항’이 기사에 반영되지 않을까? 그는 아마도 자신의 희망사항을 합리화해주는 이른바 ‘부동산 전문가’들을 열심히 찾아다닐 것이다.


2. 집단사고(group think):

부동산 정보업체 사람들은 이해관계에 노출되다 보니 자연스레 주된 의견은 항상 ‘집값은 오른다’로 귀결된다. 이 같은 의견이 업계에서 다수를 차지하다 보니 자연스레 이견은 줄어들고, 전반적으로 의견들이 한 방향으로 동화된다. 이른바 한 집단 안에서 이견을 배제하고 다수의 의견에 의문을 제기하지 않는 분위기가 형성된다.  


3. 인지부조화:

널리 알려진 대로 일반적으로 사람들은 자신의 기존 인식과 다른 상황이 발생할 때 인식을 바꾸기보다는 기존 인식을 바뀐 상황에 맞춰 자위적으로 합리화하거나 맹신하게 된다. 지난해까지 ‘대세상승’을 부르짖던 사람들이 올 들어 주택시장이 계속 가라앉자 정부의 보금자리 주택정책이나 DTI규제 때문에 발생한 일시적 현상으로 자위하거나, “지난해 주택시장이 경기 회복세를 선반영한 때문”이라고 합리화하는 것이 이런 식의 반응이다. 또한 대세하락 흐름 속에서 자신들의 주장을 합리화하기 위해 ‘오를 곳은 오른다’는 식의 일견 그럴듯하지만 조금만 생각해보면 하나마나한 주장을 늘어놓고 있는 것이다.   


4. 현상 추종적 설명:

<탐욕과 공포의 게임>(지식노마드)이라는 책을 보면 이런 내용이 나온다. S증권 리서치센터가 삼성전자에 대해 목표주가를 내릴 때는 가상의 투자자가 주식을 사고, 목표주가를 올릴 때는 주식을 파는 ‘청개구리 투자’를 한다고 치자. 그 결과 2년 동안 S증권이 권하는 대로 투자하면 본전치기 수준이었지만, 청개구리 투자는 23%의 수익을 본 것으로 나왔다. 이 책의 저자는 이렇게 말한다. “전문가들의 예상 방식은 주가를 예로 들자면, 최근까지 올랐으면 앞으로도 그러하리라 예상하고 내렸으면 앞으로도 약세를 보일 것이라고 예상하는 추세추종 또는 모멘텀 올라타기”라고 말이다. 지금 언론에서 나오는 보도나 소위 부동산 전문가라는 사람들의 전망은 이처럼 사실 눈앞의 현상만 보고 추세 추종을 하는 것에 가깝다. 


잠깐만 생각해봐도 2008년 말에는 “향후 한동안은 부동산이 하락할 수밖에 없다”고 외치던 사람들이 2009년 하반기가 되자 대부분 ‘대세 상승’을 외쳤다. 그리고 올 초에는 ‘상저하고’라고 하더니 이제는 하반기에도 내릴 가능성이 높다고 주장하고 있다. 잘 생각해보면 이들의 전망은 전망이 아니라 현상 추종이고, 후행적인 설명일 뿐이다. 더구나 이들은 주택시장과 이를 둘러싼 경제의 구조적 흐름을 모르다 보니 더더욱 현상 추종적 성향을 나타낼 수밖에 없다. 거꾸로 뒤늦게나마 부동산 버블에 대해 경고하는 사람들이 경제학자인 이유도 그나마 이들이 경제의 구조적 흐름을 상대적으로 더 잘 이해하고 있기 때문인 측면도 있다.  


5. 자기 충족적 예언(self-fulfilling prophecy)에 대한 과신:

부동산 투기 선동가들과 이들의 확성기 노릇을 하는 부동산 기자들은 전체로서 일반인들의 판단과 행동에 상당한 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 실제로 이들이 '물건'을 찍어주면 많은 이들이 앞다퉈 투자했고, 그 결과 실제로 집값이 상승했다. 그렇게 투자해 재미를 본 사람들이 2000년대 초중반에 속출했다. 그러다 보니 이들은 자신들의 전망에 대해 자신감을 갖게 됐다. 그 같은 경험이 외환위기 직후부터 해서 근 10년 가까이 지속됐으니 그 같은 자기 예언에 대한 과신이 오죽하겠는가. 이들이 주택시장과 주택시장을 둘러싼 구조적 흐름을 보기보다는 ‘주택시장은 심리’라느니 ‘낙관적으로 봐야 주택투자에 성공한다’느니 하는 얘기를 괜히 하는 것이 아니다. 그들의 눈에는 정말 (낙관적인) 심리가 그동안 주택시장을 움직여 온 것처럼 생각될 것이니 말이다. 하지만 그것은 부동산 대세상승기에나 통하던 얘기다. 주택시장이 대세하락 흐름에 들어가면 더 이상 그런 것은 먹히지 않는다. 그런데 아직 그것을 깨닫지 못하고 있으니 안타까울 뿐이다. 이들도 이제 자신들의 예언이 과거처럼 먹히지 않으니 당황해서인지 이제는 ‘평정심을 가지라’는 등 선문답을 늘어놓고 있다. 가장 속물적인 이들이 선계에서 이슬을 먹고사는 도인들이나 할 법한 얘기들을 늘어놓고 있으니 웃음이 빵 터질 수밖에 없다.

 

 

 

트위터를 하시는 분들은 http://twitter.com/kennedian3로 저를 팔로우해주시면 감사하겠습니다. 트위터를 지난해 하반기부터 개설했지만 본격적으로 사용하기 시작한 것은 한달여 전부터입니다. 향후 제가 아고라와 제 블로그(다음뷰), 오마이뉴스, 네이버 부동산, 한겨레신문 등에 연재하는 글뿐만 아니라 각종 언론 인터뷰 등을 통합해서 매일 소개할 생각입니다. 참고바랍니다. 

 

모든 사람이 땀흘린만큼 제대로 대접받는 건전한 민주주의 시장경제 건설을 위한 좀더 의미 있는 토론과 참여를 원하시는 분들은 김광수경제연구소포럼(http://cafe.daum.net/kseriforum)을 방문해주십시오.

by 선대인 2010. 7. 14. 09:15
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