부동산 거품이 붕괴되기 직전 부동산 시장이 극도의 침체를 보이니 정부와 정치권 에서는 부동산 경기 부양책 마련에 나서고 있다. 재건축 규제 완화니 전매제한 기간 단축이니 집값 거품 유지에 도움이 된다면 어떤 것이든 전방위적으로 동원하는 양상이다. 경기가 위축되니 부동산 경기를 살려 이를 상쇄해야 한다는 식이다. 이 같은 주장은 현재 한국 경제의 상황을 몰라도 한참 모르는 엉뚱한 처방이다. 왜 이 주장이 말이 안 되는가?

 

지금 한국 경제의 핵심적 문제들인 소비 위축, 내수 침체, 실업률 증가, 양극화 확대, 고물가 고비용 구조 등의 문제는 상당 부분 부동산 거품 때문이다. 구체적으로 보자면 우선, 가계부채의 증대와 이에 따른 이자 부담 증가로 가계의 소비 여력이 급격히 위축됐다. 또한 소비재와 달리 가장 값비싼 생활 필수재인 주택 값은 상승하면 그만큼 실질 소득이 줄어드는 효과가 발생한다. 또 주거비 부담이 상승하면 이를 부담하기 위한 임금 상승이 합리화돼 기업의 비용 증가로 이어진다. 자산 양극화가 심해지고 이로 인한 사회적 위화감도 증대된다. 토지 비용의 상승으로 경제가 고비용 구조로 흐르게 돼 중장기적으로 국가 경쟁력 저하로 이어진다. 이처럼 거품은 형성되면서 이미 막대한 경제적 폐해를 낳는다.

 

한 나라의 경제가 제대로 굴러가려면 부동산 등 자산 경제의 영역과 생산경제의 영역이 균형을 맞춰야 한다. 그런데 2000년대 한국 경제는 부동산 등 자산경제에 돈이 몰리면서 생산경제에는 돈이 몰리지 않는다. 2000년 이후 늘어난 가계 부채 340조원 가운데 200조원 이상이 부동산에 들어갔다. 상당수의 기업이 부동산 투자에 열을 올리고, 직장인이 직무 전문성을 쌓기보다 집값 추이에 촉각을 곤두세우고, 가계가 집 사느라 은행 빚 갚기에 바쁜 나라에서 어떻게 경제의 생산성이 높아지겠는가? 올라가는 점포 임대료 때문에 점원 월급을 깎아야 하는 곳에서 얼마나 값싸고 질 좋은 서비스가 나오겠는가? 그런데도 정부는 경제 자원이 부동산에 편중되도록 집값 거품을 키우고 유지하면서 7~8년을 지속해왔다.

 

정말 경제를 살리고 싶다면 이제라도 거품을 빼야 한다. 물론 과도기적인 충격은 불가피하다. 한 동안은 버블 붕괴의 고통으로 많은 경제 주체들이 시달릴 것이다. 하지만 계속 부동산에 계속 돈이 몰리게 해서 거품을 키운다면 한국 경제는 미래를 기약할 수 없다. 지금이라도 거품을 깨트려 부동산에 몰린 돈이 생산경제로 이동할 수 있게 하는 것만이 미래를 기약하는 방법이다. 만약 7~8년 동안 자산 경제에 몰렸던 돈들의 절반만이라도 생산경제에 몰렸다면 지금 이 나라는 아마 일자리가 넘쳐나 주체를 못했을지도 모른다.

 

그런데도 왜 정부는 건설경기, 그리고 부동산 경기 부양론을 펼칠까? 경기가 나쁘면 건설경기와 이와 연관된 부동산 경기를 살려야 한다는 개발주의 시대의 관성에 젖어서 그런 것 같다. 경기가 위축되면 부동산 경기를 부양한다는 게 개발시대의 공식처럼 돼 있었다. 하지만 그때와 지금은 상황이 다르다. 당시에는 각종 사회간접자본이 부족했고, 주택도 절대적으로 부족했다. 또 주택을 포함한 건설산업의 연관효과도 컸다. 하지만 첨단기술집약적인 산업 위주로 산업구조가 급격히 변했다. 더 이상 ‘삽질해서’ 경제성장을 하는 시기가 지났다는 말이다. 당장 건설산업의 연관효과도 크지 않다.

 

물론 이들에게는 개발주의 시대의 관성 때문만이 아니라 다른 속내도 있을 것이다. 자신들을 포함해 부동산 부자들을 위한 집값 거품 떠받치기 말이다. 정부의 부양책 가운데 종부세나 양도세 완화 방안도 마찬가지다. 투기자나 부동산 부자들을 위한 정책은 서민의 삶은 더욱 고통스럽게 한다. 왜 그런가?

 

종부세를 예로 들어보자. 현 정부는 부동산 경기를 살린다며 재산 가치로 상위 2%가 내는 종부세 부담을 완화한다고 하는데 그로 인해 덜 걷히는 세수는 누가 부담하는가? 결국 서민들이 부가가치세 등 간접세 형태로 내는 세금에서 더 걷어갈 수밖에 없다. 세계 자본주의 종주국이라는 미국에서도 직접세와 간접세 비율이 7 대 3 정도다. 그런데 우리는 그 비율이 정반대로 돼 있다. 그만큼 조세의 역진적 성격이 강해 서민들의 조세 부담이 커지고 있다. 이 때문에 OECD 국가들이 재정의 소득 재분배 기능을 통해 불평등도를 40%이상 완화하는데 비해 우리는 5%도 못 줄이고 있다. 종부세는 보유세의 하나로 부동산 가격이 오를 때 보유 부담을 늘려 가격을 안정시키고, 부동산을 가장 생산적으로 활용할 수 있는 사람이 소유케 하는 매우 시장 친화적인 세금이다. 미국의 보유세율도 주별로 큰 편차가 있지만 평균 1.15%가 넘는다. 보유세율이 이보다 더 높은 선진국도 많다. 그런데 우리의 보유세 실효세율은 필자가 직접 계산해본 바로는 아직 0.3%도 안 된다. (정부는 0.6% 수준까지 올라왔다고 하지만 부실한 과표기준 등을 고려할 때 엉터리 주장에 가깝다) 갑작스러운 종부세 시행으로 문제점이 있다면, 앞으로 ‘미세 조정’을 해나가면 된다. 그런데 선진적인 세제 구조를 만들어가지는 못할망정 갓 시행된 법률을 무력화시킨단 말인가? 그것도 시대착오적인 방향으로 말이다. 한나라당의 다주택 보유자에 대한 중과세 조치 완화안도 마찬가지다. 다주택자의 양도세 중과 조치는 다주택자의 비거주 주택 처분을 유도하고, 불필요한 주택 소유를 억제하자는 게 도입 취지다. 2006년부터 시행된 이 법을 2년 만에 다시 없던 일로 되돌리자는 것이다. 툭하면 ‘법제도의 일관성’을 거론하며 제대로 된 개혁에는 굼뜬 이들이 이런 데는 얼마나 재빠른지 모르겠다.


결론은 이렇다. 당장 정부 재정을 더 풀어 부동산에 돈을 더 집어넣어 봐야 ‘밑 빠진 독에 물 붓기’다. 부동산 거품의 판돈을 정부 재정으로 더 채워봐야 오래가지 못한다. 첨단 기술경제 시대이고, 지식정보화 시대, 창의 경제 시대라고 한다. 그러면 국가 전체의 자원 배분이 이런 영역으로 배분되도록 해야 한다. 첨단 기술을 고안하고 지식과 정보를 창출하며 창의성을 발휘하는 것은 사람이다. 사람에게 투자해야 한다. 한 나라의 자원은 유한하기에 제한된 자원 안에서 최적의 생산성을 낼 수 있는 자원 배분을 해야 하는 것이다. 그런데 사람은 비정규직 양산과 저임금으로 천대하면서 땅과 집만 신주단지 모시듯 하면 경제가 사는가? 전매제한 완화 등을 통해 사람들이 투기판에 뛰어들게 만드는 것이 과연 정부가 할 일인가? 정부부터 부동산에 돈을 잔뜩 집어넣고, 가계와 기업까지 덩달아 부동산 투기판에 뛰어들게 하면 경제가 사는가? 집값이 미국 뉴욕과 영국 런던보다 더 비싸진다고 한국 경제가 최일류 국가가 되는가? 전국 곳곳에 아파트를 즐비하게 짓는다고 한국의 성장 잠재력이 높아지는가? 더구나 부동산 경기 부양을 한답시고 시중 유동성을 억지로 늘리면 안 그래도 높은 물가를 더욱 뛰게 할 뿐이다. 그렇게 되면 더욱 고통받는 사람들은 서민이다. 이처럼 지금 정부가 하려고 하는 짓은 실제로는 기득권층을 위해 집값 거품을 띄우는 것이다. 하지만 그런 속셈은 감추고 경기를 살린다는 명목을 내세우고 있다. 하지만 이명박 정부의 부동산 경기 부양은 경제를 살리는 것이 아니라 한국 경제를 죽이는 길이다. 한국 경제의 성장 잠재력을 키우는 방향에 역행하는 길이다. 그리고 서민들을 더욱 고통스럽게 하는 길이다. 부동산 거품을 키우면 키울수록 한국 경제의 구조적 문제들은 더욱 악화될 뿐이기 때문이다.

by 선대인 2008. 9. 3. 01:16
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