한 제조업체가 호황기 때 무리한 경영판단에 따라 생산한 제품이 경기가 식으면서 대규모 재고로 남게 됐다. 그렇다고 정부가 이들 기업의 재고를 대량으로 사줘야 할까. 말도 안 되는 질문 같지만 현 정부는 며칠 전 ‘4.23 미분양 해소대책’을 통해 이 같은 질문에 ‘그렇다’고 답했다. 적어도 건설업계에 한해서는 말이다. 물론 국민경제를 걱정하는 척했지만, ‘강부자 정권’이 지방선거를 앞두고 자신들의 ‘스폰서’인 부동산 부자들과 건설업계에 준 당근이라는 점은 한 눈에 알 수 있다.

 

왜 그런가. 우선, 지금은 건설업계 지원이 아닌 건설업계 구조조정이 필요한 때이다. 외환위기 당시인 1998년 4270개이던 종합건설업체 수는 2001년 이후 1만3000개 수준으로 늘어난 뒤 거의 그대로 유지되고 있다. 1998년 522개 업체가 부도났고, 2000년대 부동산 호황기에도 매년 150개 업체가 부도났지만 지난해에는 87개에 불과했다. 건설업체들의 평균수주액도 부동산 호황기였던 2003년 78.8억원이었으나 지난해에는 대대적인 토건 부양책 덕으로 96.4억원으로 오히려 더 늘어났다. 정부 부양책과 구조조정 회피로 한계선상에 이른 건설업체들의 구조조정이 지연되고 있음을 드러내는 것이다. 경기 회복세가 완연한 지금까지 건설업계 구조조정을 회피하며 오히려 지원에 나서는 것은 납득하기 어렵다. 

 

또한 지금 한국경제 위기의 핵심은 800조원을 넘나드는 가계부채의 위기이지 건설업계 위기가 아니다. 그런데도 정부는 신규 분양아파트 갈아타기 수요 위주로 DTI규제를 완화했다. 상당수 언론들이 사태를 침소봉대하는 저축은행의 건설업계 PF대출 규모는 11.8조원이다. 전체 예금취급기관 대출액의 1%, 전체 가계부채의 1.4%도 안 된다. 그런데도 정부는 ‘가계부채 다이어트’를 유도하기는커녕 건설업계 부양을 위해 가계 부채를 더 늘려도 된다는 식이다.  

 

이런 상황에서 정부는 허황된 ‘건설업계 대마불사’ 논리를 제어하기는커녕 오히려 부추기고 있다. 도덕적 해이를 부추기는 특혜를 남발하면서 ‘건설업계의 도덕적 해이를 우려한다’는 대통령의 립서비스는 기만적이다. 우리보다 경제상황이 나쁜 미국과 유럽도 금융업계의 대마불사 문제를 해결하기 위해 적극 나서고 있다. 그런데 우리는 금융시스템의 한 축도 아닌 특정 업계를 살린다고 역주행에 열심이다. 

 

그렇다고 이미 대세가 기운 주택시장을 되살릴 수는 없다. 현재 주택거래 침체는 가계 소득 대비 너무 오른 집값의 정상적 조정을 정부가 방해한 탓이 크다. 정상적인 집값 조정을 교란할수록 정부가 내세우는 ‘주택거래 활성화’는 멀어질 뿐이다. 또한 건설업계 구조조정 지연은 시장 수요를 뛰어넘는 주택 공급 과잉으로 이어져 주택시장의 장기침체를 초래할 공산이 크다. 얼마 전까지 “부동산 버블이 없다”고 부인했던 정부의 다급함만 노출했다는 점에서 오히려 시장 심리를 더욱 악화시킬 수도 있다. 더구나 이번 대책의 재원 부담을 이미 막대한 빚에 허덕이는 공기업에 떠넘겨 정부의 부양 여력도 상당히 소진됐음을 드러냈을 뿐이다. 

 

정부의 막대한 부양책에도 불구하고 지난해 주택시장의 반등기간은 6개월에 불과했고, 수도권의 주택 가격과 거래량은 다시 2008년 말 수준으로 되돌아갔다. 그 과정에서 가계부채 45조원이라는 버블의 규모만 더 키우고 말았다. 비대해진 건설업체들을 모두 먹여 살리려 발버둥칠수록 부동산 거품만 커지고 소중한 자원은 낭비되며 지식정보화 시대의 선진경제로 나아가는 활로만 막힐 뿐이다. 국민은 건설업계의 ‘봉’이 아니다.


 

 

모든 사람이 땀흘린만큼 제대로 대접받는 건전한 민주주의 시장경제 건설을 위한 좀더 의미 있는 토론과 참여를 원하시는 분들은 김광수경제연구소포럼(http://cafe.daum.net/kseriforum)을 방문해주십시오.

 

by 선대인 2010. 4. 28. 09:19
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