2008년말~2009년 초 주택 가격 급락기가 끝난 뒤 정부의 막대한 부동산 부양책에 힘입어 주택 가격이 반등할 당시 상당수 언론들은 아파트 거래량이 전월 대비 수십 %씩 폭증했다며 거래가 매우 활발한 것처럼 기사를 쏟아냈다. 이는 통계를 잘못 이용한 전형적인 선동보도 사례 가운데 하나였다. 주택거래가 극도로 침체됐던 2008년 말과 2009년 초의 아파트 거래량과 비교해 거래량이 전월 대비 수십 %씩 폭증했다는 식으로 표현하는 것은 현실 인식을 오도할 가능성이 컸다. 가정적인 예를 들자면, 침체기여서 거래량이 100건에서 130건으로 늘었을 경우 ‘30%나’ 폭증한 것이지만, 원래 평균적인 거래량이 1000건 수준이었다면 이는 여전히 상당히 미약한 변화라고 할 수 있다. 

 

실제로 지난해 상반기에 상당수 언론들이 매번 폭증했다고 보도한 아파트 거래량이 가장 많이 늘었을 때가 수도권 기준으로는 2006년 말 폭등기에 비해 3분의 1 수준에 불과했다. 더구나 지난해 가계 부채가 집값 폭등기인 2006년 수준을 뛰어넘어 증가했지만, 아파트 최대 거래량이 이 정도 수준에 불과했던 사실을 알려주는 언론은 눈 씼고 찾아봐도 없었다. 오히려 대다수 언론들은 이 같은 ‘큰 그림’은 보여주지 않고, 매월 거래량이 큰 폭으로 폭증하는 것처럼 선동해댔던 것이다.

 

어쨌거나 지난해 4분기 이후 거래량이 급격히 줄면서 이 같은 선동보도는 자연스레 사라지게 됐다. 그런데 지난해와는 다르지만 여전히 거래량 통계를 가지고 주택시장 상황에 대한 일반인들의 인식을 오도하는 글이 최근 다시 등장했다. 한 부동산 정보 업체 관계자는 2010년 3월의 전국 및 수도권 아파트 거래량이 2월에 비해 20% 가량 늘었는데도 불구하고 주택 가격이 하락했다며 이를 두고 ‘시장 이상현상(market anomaly)’라고 표현했다. 그의 주장에 따르면 거래량이 늘어나면 가격이 뛰는 게 정상인데 이번에는 오히려 가격이 떨어졌으니 ‘아파트 시장에 이상현상이 나타나고 있다’는 것이다. 그러면서도 “가격 하락폭이 심하지 않고 거래도 많다. 이는 저가 매수자들도 여전히 많다는 얘기다”라며 얼마든지 주택 매수 세력이 대기하고 있는 것처럼 표현하고 있다. 하지만 이는 아전인수격의 해석이다. 

 

부동산 정보업체들은 회원 부동산 정보업체들의 (매도)호가를 중심으로 가격 지수를 작성하는데 이는 거의 사기적인 조작에 가깝다고 할 수 있다. 이 같은 부동산 정보업체들의 가격 지수에 대해서는 추후 기회가 있을 때  설명하기로 하고 이번 글에서는 그 부동산 재테크 전문가의 거래량에 대한 해석에만 초점을 맞추기로 하자.

 

아파트 거래 침체가 매우 심할 때 전월 대비 거래량 증가 비율이 마치 매우 큰 의미가 있는 것처럼 주장하는 것은 통계를 제대로 읽는 능력이 없음을 입증하거나, 아니면 통계를 이용해 독자들을 속이는 것일 뿐이다. 결론부터 말하면 지금 같은 극심한 주택 거래 침체기에 전월 대비 20% 정도 늘었다고 해야 큰 의미가 있는 것은 아니고, 오히려 큰 틀에서 보면 여전히 침체가 지속되고 있다고 봐야 한다.

 

이 같은 사실을 좀더 구체적으로 보기 위해 아래 <도표1>을 참고로 살펴보자. 아파트 거래량을 월별로 나타낼 경우 이사철이 겹치거나 신규 입주 물량(유감스럽게도 한국의 아파트 거래량에서는 기존 아파트 매매 거래뿐만 아니라 신규 입주 물량도 입주 시점에 거래량으로 잡고 있어서 아파트 거래량 통계의 신뢰성을 크게 훼손하고 있다)의 증감에 따라서도 진폭이 나타날 수 있다. 따라서 이 같은 변수를 줄이기 위해 아파트 거래량을 분기 단위로 보면 아파트 거래량 추이를 상대적으로 좀 더 정확히 볼 수 있다.

 

<도표1> 

 (주)온나라부동산포털 자료로부터 KSERI 작성


<도표1>을 보면 알 수 있듯이 2010년 1월의 아파트 거래량은 상당히 위축된 상태임을 알 수 있다. 전월 대비 ‘20%나’ 늘어났다는 거래량이 사실은 크게 보면 미미한 변화에 불과한 것이다. 따라서 해당 부동산 재테크 전문가가 ‘시장 이상현상’이라고 떠든 것은 사실은 전혀 이상현상이 아니다. 큰 틀에서 보면 주택 거래가 침체를 이어가는 가운데 주택 가격이 하락하고 있는 지극히 정상적인 상황일 뿐이다. 자신의 무지 때문인지는 모르겠지만, 지극히 정상적인 상황이 벌어지고 있는 것인데도 일시적으로 나타나는 기복을 대단한 변화인 양 멋대로 해석해 ‘이상현상’이라고 호들갑떨고 있을 뿐이다. 연장선상에서 “가격 하락폭이 심하지 않고 거래도 많다. 이는 저가 매수자들도 여전히 많다는 얘기다”라는 주장도 자신의 희망 섞인 기대일 뿐 전혀 사실이 아님이 드러난다.

 

왜 그런지 <도표2>를 참고로 현재의 아파트 거래량이 얼마나 위축돼 있는 상황인지 추가 설명을 해보자. 아파트 거래량은 2006년 아파트 실거래가 공표 시점 이후부터 집계됐으므로 그 이전의 거래량은 파악하기 어려웠다. 그래서 필자는 1996년 이후 아파트 거래량 추이를 자체적으로 추정해보았다. 대중적인 글에서 자세히 설명하기는 어려우나 가계부채와 아파트 거래량의 상관관계 함수를 이용해 한국은행의 가계부채 증감에다 주택 가격 수준을 감안해 아파트 거래량을 추정하는 방식으로 작성한 것이다.

 

<도표2>


 (주) 한국은행 및 국토해양부 자료를 바탕으로 KSERI 추정, 작성


이 같은 추정 거래량은 국민은행이 가격지수 작성시 매월 조사하는 아파트 매도-매수세 동향과 매우 비슷한 흐름을 나타내고 있다는 점에서 상당히 적실성 있는 추정이라고 할 수 있다. 참고로, 도표에서 2006년 이전 분홍색 부분은 바로 이렇게 도출한 추정에 의한 거래량 추이다. 또 자주색 점선은 수도권 아파트 거래량 10만호를 기준으로 필자가 표시한 것으로 시계열상의 데이터 분석과 필자의 경험으로 짐작하건대, 거래량이 이 이하로 떨어질 경우 주택시장이 침체기로 빠져드는 것으로 볼 수 있다.

 

거래량 추이를 보면 1차 폭등기 때는 전국적으로 집값이 뛰면서 전국 아파트 거래가 매우 활발했다. 2차 폭등기 때는 수도권에서만 집값이 뛰었고 이미 집값이 많이 뛴 상황이어서 거래량이 1차 폭등기 때에 비해 많지 않았다. 하지만 2006년 하반기의 거래량은 1차 폭등기 때를 능가하는 것으로 이 때 가격과 거래량이 단기간에 폭증했음을 알 수 있다.

 

이를 보면 2010년 1분기의 거래량이 얼마나 위축돼 있는지 더욱 여실히 느껴질 것이다. 문제의 부동산 재테크 전문가가 3월의 거래량을 두고 ‘이상현상’이라며 호들갑 떨며 ‘저가 매수자들이 여전히 많다’고 주장하는 것이 얼마나 허무맹랑한지 알 수 있는 것이다. 현재 아파트 거래량이 어느 정도 수준인지 제대로 파악할 능력도 없는 사람이 각종 언론에서 대표적인 ‘부동산 전문가’로 대접받는 한국의 현실 자체가 안타까울 뿐이다. 이는 이 같은 허무맹랑한 주장들을 걸러내는 제대로 된 전문가나 언론이 없다는 현실과도 직결돼 있다.   




*우리 연구소가 창립 10주년을 맞아 일반인을 대상으로 무료 공개세미나를 개최합니다. 주제는 최근 10년간 한국경제 및 부동산시장 진단과 전망입니다. 자세한 내용은 아래 링크를 참조하시거나 우리 연구소포럼을 방문하셔서 신청하시기 바랍니다. 감사합니다.

 http://bbs1.agora.media.daum.net/gaia/do/debate/read?bbsId=D115&articleId=948532&pageIndex=1&searchKey=&searchValue=&sortKey=depth&limitDate=0&agree=F

 

 모든 사람이 땀흘린만큼 제대로 대접받는 건전한 민주주의 시장경제 건설을 위한 좀더 의미 있는 토론과 참여를 원하시는 분들은 김광수경제연구소포럼(http://cafe.daum.net/kseriforum)을 방문해주십시오.

by 선대인 2010. 4. 21. 12:19
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