우리 연구소를 비방하는 사람들의 단골 레파토리 가운데 하나가 우리 연구소가 10년 전부터 집값 떨어진다는 주장을 했다는 식으로 왜곡하는 것입니다. 이는 전혀 사실이 아닙니다.  

 

우리 연구소가 부동산 문제에 대해 언급하는 것은 주로 두 가지 차원입니다.

 

먼저 첫번째는 부동산 문제가 지금 한국 사회, 경제 위기의 핵심이라고 할 정도로 워낙 큰 비중을 차지하고  있기에 국민경제 전체 차원에서 부동산 문제의 현실을 정확히 진단하고 올바른 대책을 제시하기 위한 것입니다. 그런 차원에서 우리 연구소는 2000년대 내내 부동산 거품의 사회, 경제적 폐해에 대해 줄기차게 경고했으며 버블이 붕괴할 경우의 충격에 대비하기 위해 거품을 키우지 않기 위한 정책적 처방과 대안을 제시해왔습니다.  

 

둘째로는 부동산 투기 선동 정보 등 워낙 왜곡된 정보가 난무하고 있어 일반 가계에 에 우리 연구소가 분석, 진단한 정확한 정보를 전달해 가계의 피해를 최소화하기 위한 것입니다. 이는 전문연구기관으로서 왜곡된 정보를 정화하기 위한 노력으로 너무나 당연한 책무입니다. 한국 사회는 OECD 국가들 가운데 가장 큰 건설업 비중을 가진 나라이고 건설업에서 생겨나는 각종 비자금, 그리고 부동산 광고 등을 매개로 왜곡돼 선동성 기사들이 신문 지면에 넘쳐납니다. 저는 신문 기자 출신이기에 이 같은 구조에 대해 너무 잘 알고 있고 여러 차례 설명한 바도 있습니다. 그런 차원에서 주로 제가 주택시장의 대세 하락 징후가 명확해진 2008년 하반기부터 '집값 하락'에 대한 명시적이고 구체적 경고를 해오고 있는 것입니다.

 

물론 우리 연구소가 이전에도 부동산 버블에 대해 경고하면서 과도한 버블은 언젠가는 꺼지게 돼 있다고 설명한 적이 있으나 이는 버블에 대한 경고일 뿐입니다. 이는 제가 <위험한 경제학>에서 한 것처럼 "1~2년 안에 반등기가 끝나고 다시 하락기에 접어들 가능성이 높다" "2010년대의 부동산 시장은 장기간에 걸쳐 대폭 하락을 겪을 가능성이 높다"는 식으로 구체적인 전망을 한 것과는 전혀 다른 차원입니다. 

 

그런데도 우리 연구소가 10년 전부터 집값 하락을 전망했는데, 그동안 계속 틀렸다는 식의 주장은 비방과 음해에 가깝습니다. 이런 비방과 음해는 최근 집값이 급락하니 "이 사람들 10년 전부터 경고했는데, 그 뒤로도 집값은 계속 올랐다"는 식으로 최근 급변한 상황에 대해 불안해 하는 사람들의 마음을 달래기 위해서거나 "집값이 떨어진 지금이 살 기회"라는 식으로 또 다시 선동하기 위한 것으로 보입니다. 자신들의 기존 인식과 현실이 어긋나는 '인지 부조화' 상황을 합리화하기 위한 기제의 하나라고도 할 수 있습니다.  

 

전문가와 전문기관의 역할 가운데 하나는 사회 경제적 문제에 대해 '사전 경고'하고, 이 같은 문제들이 더 커지기 전에 사전에 해소할 수 있는 방안들을 연구해 제시하는 것입니다. 제가 <위험한 경제학>을 쓴 것도 부동산시장의 구조적 위험성은 사라지지 않았는데, 온갖 선동 정보들이 난무하는 것을 나름대로 중화하기 위한 노력이었습니다. 미분양의 급증 가능성이나 건설업계의 위기, 그리고 가계부채가 초래할 경제적 충격, 그리고 저출산 고령화 충격이 가져올 미래와 건설 및 부동산 부양책을 위해 서민들과 미래세대에 돌아갈 재원들이 얼마나 소진되고 있는가를 설명하고 경고한 것입니다.

 

따라서 단순히 집값 흐름을 맞췄니 안 맞췄니 하는 차원으로 전문가나 전문 연구기관을 평가하는 것은 그 자체로서 자신의 무지함을 드러내는 것입니다. 물론 전문 투자자나 증권사와 같은 투자기관에 대해서는 그런 평가가 가능하겠으나, 우리 연구소는 투자 자문 기관도 아니고 재무 컨설팅 업체도 아닙니다. 따라서 집을 여전히 투기나 투자 대상으로 보면서 허황된 생각에 사로잡힌 사람들이 우리 연구소를 저차원적 수준에서 비방하는 주장에 대해서는 경계하시길 당부드립니다.

 

그리고 한 가지만 더 이야기하자면, 이제는 전망 그만하고 대안을 내놓으라는 사람들도 있습니다. 이미 우리 연구소는 2000년대 내내 부동산 문제뿐만 아니라 일자리, 저출산 고령화, 산업, 세금/재정 문제 등에 대해 각종 정책적 진단과 처방을 내놓고 있습니다. 연간 24회에 걸친 <경제보고서>와 매주 7개의 보고서가 제공되는 <경제시평> 자료들이 바로 그 결정체들입니다. <위험한 경제학> 2권에서도 제일 마지막 장을 '한국경제의 재구성---한국 경제의 제도약을 위한 10가지 제언'으로 따로 구성했습니다. 그 외에도 각종 출판물 등의 형태로 이를 내놓고 있습니다. 이를 전혀 읽어보지도 않고, 대안을 내놓으라고 하니 당혹스럽습니다. 그런 분들은 기존에 내놓은 대안에 관해서나 먼저 읽어보시길 바랍니다.

 

이렇게 말하면 또 "책 장사 하느냐"고 그러시는 분들이 있습니다. 이런 분들일수록 지식정보화 시대에 1~2만원 하는 책값은 비싸다고 하면서 최소 수억씩 하는 수도권 아파트 값은 오히려 싸니 수십억씩 갈 것이라 하시는 분들입니다. 이런 분들은 제 글을 읽기 전에 재화의 가치에 대한 자신들의 비뚤어진 균형감각부터 회복해야 할 분들입니다. 저도 그런 분들이 제 글을 공짜로 읽는 것은 무지 아깝습니다. 할 수만 있다면, 정말 그런 분들에게는 가격을 편당 1000만원이라도 매겨서 제 글을 읽고 싶은 마음이 하나도 안 들게 만들고 싶습니다. 이렇게 말할 수밖에 없는 현실이 안타까울 뿐입니다.



모든 사람이 땀흘린만큼 제대로 대접받는 건전한 민주주의 시장경제 건설을 위한 좀더 의미 있는 토론과 참여를 원하시는 분들은 김광수경제연구소포럼(http://cafe.daum.net/kseriforum)을 방문해주십시오.


 

by 선대인 2010. 4. 8. 10:15
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