기업은행에 이어 현대경제연구원, 산은경제연구소에 이어 하나은행 경제연구소에서 부동산 버블에 대한 경고와 대세하락 가능성을 경고하고 있습니다. 또한 이들 연구 결과에 대해 부동산 및 건설업계 대변인들의 반박도 실으며 집값 하락은 하지만 크게 떨어지지 않는다, 오를 곳은 오른다는 식의 '뭍타기 보도'가 이어지고 있습니다. 밤 늦은 시각이고 해서 길게 쓸 수도 없어 짧게 씁니다.

 

1. 몇 년 후 대세 하락하는 것이 아니라 이미 대세하락은 시작됐습니다.

 

2. 경제연구소들의 경고는 뒤늦은 뒷북 경고라고 보입니다. 어쨌거나 뒷북경고라도 사람들에게 경각심을 갖게 하는데는 도움이 된다고 봅니다.

 

3. 인구나 주택공급 등을 대세하락의 근거로 주로 사용하는데, 지금 당장의 집값 하락세는 현재 주택 가격이 너무 높아 추가 수요가 없기 때문에 집값이 떨어지는 것입니다.  

 

4. 어쨌든 경제를 연구하는 기관들은 이제라도 경고를 하는데, 땅만 내려다보는 부동산 업자들이나 그 대변인들은 여전히 '일시적' '보합' '지역적 차별화' 등의 표현을 쓰며 어떻게든 대세하락을 부인하려 합니다. 모씨는 현재의 저금리가 유지되는 한 집값 급락은 없다고 하는군요. 사상 최저금리 수준에서도 집값이 이 지경인데, 금리가 오르면 어떻게 된다는 것인지에 대해서는 전혀 언급이 없네요. 

 

5. 부동산 업자들이 대세 하락을 부인하는 근거는 1~2인 가구 증가, 토지보상금, 개발 호재에 따른 지역적 차별화 등인데,

제가 이미 모두 반박했던 내용들입니다. '집값 거품 없다'는 국토부의 반박이나 이와 유사한 부동산 업자들의 주장 또한 이미 다 설득력 없음을 밝힌 바 있습니다. 

 

6. 이 사람들은 얼마 전까지 공급 부족을 외치다가 이제는 보금자리 주택 때문에 공급 과잉이어서 집값이 떨어진다고 외칩니다.

 

7. 이 사람들은 지난해 하반기까지 '집값 바닥 쳤다' '대세 상승이다'를 외쳤던 사람들입니다. 일말의 반성도 없고, 이들의 확성기 노릇을 했던 언론들도 전혀 반성이 없습니다. 이들 언론들은 여전히 같은 사람들을 인용해서 자신들의 과오를 물타기 할 뿐입니다. 이런 식으로 부동산 버블 경고에 대해 심리전 차원의 '물타기 보도'가 늘어나고 있습니다.

 

8. 이들은 주택 시장 침체를 빌미로 건설업계 위기를 경제 전반의 위기로 확대 포장하며 부동산과 건설업계 부양을 요구합니다. 심지어 DTI규제를 풀어서라도 주택 수요를 늘려달라고 요구합니다. 하지만 현재 한국 경제의 위기는 건설업계의 위기가 아니라 가계부채의 위기입니다. 일부 건설업계를 살리려고 가계부채를 더 키우라는 요구는 정말 파렴치한 주장입니다.

 

9. 이런 상황에서도 오랫동안 선동 보도에 세뇌된, 또는 막차에 올라탄 분들의 '인지 부조화' 현상이 여전한 듯합니다. 하지만 심적으로는 매우 불안해하는 기색이 역력해 보입니다. 이들은 인지 부조화를 합리화하기 위한 온갖 핑계를 찾겠지요. 이런 글도 있더군요. "2003년에도 이런 부동산 버블 경고가 있었는데, 이후 집값이 폭등했다"고. 또 희생양도 찾더군요. 그들이 제물로 삼기 가장 좋은 게 저나 우리 연구소겠지요.

 

10. 이런 상황이다 보니 제가 부동산 문제를 벗어나는 시간이 자꾸 지체되고 있네요. 세금/재정 문제도 매우 중요한 과제인데 말입니다. 하지만 한동안은 부동산 문제를 소홀히 할 수 없을 것 같습니다. 더구나 네이버 부동산 섹션에 연재까지 하게 됐으니, 그냥 제 업이려니 합니다.

 

늦은 시각에 가볍게 써봤습니다. 편안한 잠들 이루시길 바랍니다.

 

 

 

모든 사람이 땀흘린만큼 제대로 대접받는 건전한 민주주의 시장경제 건설을 위한 좀더 의미 있는 토론과 참여를 원하시는 분들은 김광수경제연구소포럼(http://cafe.daum.net/kseriforum)을 방문해주십시오.


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