어제 2009년 시공능력 35위인 남양건설이 조만간 법정관리를 신청한다는보도가 나왔다. 성원건설 부도 이후 연쇄부도설이 줄을 이었는데, 실제로 남양건설이 법정관리 신청에 들어감에 따라 그 같은 위기설이 현실화할 가능성이 조금씩 높아지고 있다.


그러면 왜 중견건설업체들의 경영 위기가 이어지고 있는 것일까. 이를 알기 위해서는 한국 건설업의 공종별 매출액 분포를 살펴볼 필요가 있다. 국내 건설업체 매출액의 3대 축은 건설공사업, 토목공사업, 산업환경설비업이라고 할 수 있다. 2009년 기준 시공능력평가 100대 건설업체의 2008년 매출액 분포를 살펴보면 건설업은 52.9%인 반면 토목업은 24.3%, 산업환경설비업은 22.1%에 그치고 있다.

산업환경설비업은 두산중공업, 지에스건설, 삼성엔지니어링, 현대중공업, 대림산업, 대우건설, 현대건설, 에스케이건설, 포스코건설, 한화건설, 롯데건설, 삼성물산 등 대부분 시공능력평가 10위권 이내 재벌 건설업체이거나 중공업계열 건설업체들이라고 할 수 있다. 토목공사도 대부분 현대건설, 대우건설, 삼성물산, 대림산업, 한진중공업, 타이세이건설, 포스코건설, 에스케이건설, 지에스건설, 현대산업개발 등 대부분 재벌 건설업체들이 상위권을 차지하고 있다.

따라서 10대 재벌 건설업체들을 제외한 건설업체들의 매출액은 대부분 건설공사업에서 발생하고 있다고 할 수 있다. 특히 이들 건설공사업의 70~80%가량은 민간주택 건설업이라고 할 수 있다. 실제로 100대 건설업체들 가운데 건설업 비중이 전체 공사실적의 85% 이상을 차지하는 건설업체는 28개 업체, 70% 이상인 업체는 45, 50% 이상인 업체는 74개 업체에 이른다. 대부분의 건설업체들이 건설업 특히 주택건설업이 주력임을 알 수 있다.


<
도표>에서 보는 것처럼 건설수주액은 기복을 보이기는 하지만 2000년 이후 지속적으로 증가해왔다. 하지만 2008년 하반기 이후 주택시장 침체가 본격화되면서 건설수주액은 더 이상 증가하지 못하고 하향세를 보이고 있다. 이를 공종별로 살펴보면, 건축 수주액은 2008년 하반기 이후 급감하고 있는 반면, 토목 수주액 증가가 이를 떠받쳐주고 있다. 또 공사 발주주체별 건설수주액을 보면 2008년 하반기 이전 약 7:3 정도로 민간 발주물량이 많았으나 2008년 하반기 이후에는 민간 물량이 급감한 대신 공공 발주물량이 늘어나 민간 발주물량 감소를 보완하고 있다. 다시 공공과 민간부문의 발주물량을 공종별로 나눠 살펴보면 공공부문은 토목 물량이 급증하고 있는 반면 민간부문은 건축 물량이 급감하고 있다. 즉 민간의 건축 수주물량 급감을 공공의 토목사업이 떠받쳐주고 있다고 할 수 있다. 경인운하사업과 4대강 사업 등 대규모 토목사업이 주택시장의 침체 속에서 건설업체들의 자금난을 해소해주는 역할을 하고 있는 것이다. 그 결과 위에서 본 것처럼 공공 토목사업 발주 증가로 인한 혜택은 대부분 토건사업을 많이 해온 상위 대형 건설업체들에 집중된다고 할 수 있다.


<
도표> 2000년대 건설수주액 추이 현황


() 통계청자료로부터 KSERI 작성

 

 

대한건설협회에 따르면 국내 건설업체들은 국내 주택시장이 위축되자 해외건설 수주를 늘려 2004 75.0억 달러이던 해외건설 수출액이 2009년에는 11월까지 누계액만으로 465.4억달러까지 늘어났다. 하지만 이 같은 해외건설 수주 또한 대부분 상위 재벌건설업체들에 집중되고 있다. 2008년 매출액 기준으로 1000억원 이상 대형 건설업체들이 전체 해외건설 매출액 181957억원의 87.4% 159045억원을 차지했다. 이로 미뤄볼 때 2009년에도 해외건설 매출액의 대부분은 10대 재벌건설사들에 돌아갔을 것으로 추정된다. 따라서 상위 10여개의 대형 재벌건설업체들은 민간주택 시공물량의 급감을 공공부문의 토목사업 수주나 해외플랜트 수출 등으로 상쇄한 것으로 보인다.


하지만 이들 상위 업체들을 제외한 주택사업 위주의 건설업체들은 사정이 전혀 다르다. 이들 업체들은 상위 재벌건설업체들과는 달리 단기간에 사업 포트폴리오를 다각화하기 어려운 상황이라고 할 수 있다. 오로지 주택사업을 통한 현금 확보를 통해 자금난을 해소해야 하는 처지라고 할 수 있다. 이미 미분양 물량 급증으로 자금난에 시달리면서도 주택시장 침체로 아파트 분양사업을 제대로 하기 어려웠던 건설업체들로서는 2009년 하반기의 이른바
분양대전에 사활을 걸 수밖에 없었다. 하지만 결과는 대부분 건설업체들의 분양 참패로 막을 내리면서 건설업체들이 허위로 신고하는 미분양 물량 집계가 아닌 실제 미분양 물량은 지난해 하반기 이후에만 4만호 이상 추가로 늘어난 것으로 추정된다. 


이 같은 미분양 물량의 증가가 건설업체들에게 주는 영향은 명확하다. 건설업체들이 분양을 통해 확보하려 했던 현금은 충분히 확보하지 못한 채 오히려 부채를 안고서라도 시공을 해야 하는 처지에 이르렀기 때문이다. 미분양이 많으면 많을수록 건설업체들에게 미치는 자금압박은 크다고 할 수 있다.


이를 위해 법정관리를 신청한다는 보도가 나온 남양건설과 시공능력이 비슷한 2009년 시공능력 30위대의 한 업체의 재무현황을 살펴보자. 이 업체의 경우 건축사업 비중이 47.9%로 비교적 낮은데도 불구하고 2009 3분기 현재 영업이익 65억원에 -179억원의 당기순손실을 기록한 가운데 부채는 8,917억원에서 9,136억원으로 증가했다. 이 시기에 비유동부채는 3,147억원에서 1,309억원으로 줄어든 반면 유동부채는 5,770억원에서 7,826억원으로 급증했다. 부채가 급속히 단기화되어 자금난이 가중되고 있는 것이다.


이처럼 상위 10여개 재벌급 건설업체들을 제외한 대부분의 중견건설업체들은 주택시장 침체의 영향을 고스란히 겪고 있다. 특히 영업이익이나 당기순익이 악화되는 모습을 보이고 있는 가운데 단기 유동부채를 중심으로 부채가 급증하고 있어 자금난을 겪고 있는 것으로 보인다.


이런 상황에서 이들 건설업체들은 2009년 하반기에 대규모 분양을 통해 활로를 모색해왔다. 하지만 이미 대규모 미분양 사태가 났다. 또한 주택시장의 침체가 가속화되고 있어 앞으로도 미분양 물량을 해소하거나 분양 성공을 기대하기는 힘들 것으로 보인다. 2006년부터 지방을 중심으로 미분양 물량이 급증해 2008년 하반기 이후 상당수 기업이 퇴출 또는 워크아웃 대상으로 내몰린 것이 1차 구조조정 위기였다면, 지난해 하반기 이후의 대규모 미분양 물량 증가로 인한 2차 구조조정 위기가 이제부터 시작될 가능성이 매우 높아지고 있다. 이처럼 주택시장 침체와 미분양 급증으로 건설업계의 경영난이 악화되는데도 일부 언론이나 부동산 재테크 전문가들이 주장하는 것처럼 집값이 오를 것으로 기대하는 것은 터무니없다.


끝으로 필자가 우려하는 것은 이 같은 건설업체들의 자금난이 계속되면 건설업계나 부동산 광고에 목을 맨 상당수 신문들은 또 다시 건설 부양책을 주문할 가능성이 높다는 점이다. 하지만 부동산 거품기에 잔뜩 늘어난 건설업체들을 국민 경제 전체가 언제까지 먹여 살릴 수는 없다. 자신들의 경영 판단 잘못과 과욕으로 빚어진 잘못은 그들 스스로 책임지게 해야 한다.


미분양 물량의 급증은 건설업체의 터무니없는 고분양가 전략이나 주택 수급 사정을 제대로 고려하지 않고 공급 물량을 주먹구구식으로 늘려온 정부의 정책 실패 책임이 크다. 그런데도 문제의 본질에 대한 제대로 된 접근은 외면한 채 건설업체 위기를 다시 국민 세금으로 도와달라는 것은 형평에도 맞지 않는다. 또한
집값이
여전히 일반 가계의 소득 수준 대비 지나치게 높은 상태이고, 어떤 은행도 파산 위험에 처해 있지 않은데 온갖 부양책을 동원하라고 요구하는 것은 파렴치하다. 


한국의
부동산 시장은 수급이 무너져 이상 지탱하기 힘든 지경까지 있다. 이제는 그야말로 시장원리에 맞춰 건설업계의 구조조정이 제대로 이뤄지고 부동산 가격이 자산시장의 가격 결정 메커니즘에 맞춰 일정한 수준까지 조정되도록 하는 순리다. 이를 거부하고 다시 무리한 부양책을 쓴다면 그것이야말로 경착륙으로 가는 지름길이자, 장기침체를 부르는 조치라는 점을 정부와 건설업계는 깨닫기 바란다.  

 

 

모든 사람이 땀흘린만큼 제대로 대접받는 건전한 민주주의 시장경제 건설을 위한 좀더 의미 있는 토론과 참여를 원하시는 분들은 김광수경제연구소포럼(http://cafe.daum.net/kseriforum)을 방문해주십시오.

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