아래 도표들을 보면서 설명을 읽어주십시오.

 

아파트 거래량은 2006년 이후부터 집계됐으므로 그 이전의 거래량은 알 수 없습니다.

그런데 이번에 제가 1996년 이후 아파트 거래량 추이를 추정해보았습니다.

가계부채와 아파트 거래량의 상관관계 함수를 이용해 한국은행의 가계부채 증감에다

주택 가격 수준을 감안해 아파트 거래량을 추정하는 방식으로 작성한 것입니다.

도표에서 분홍색 부분은 바로 추정에 의한 거래량 지표입니다.

 

이 같은 추정이 상당히 정확하다는 것을 보여주는 것이 바로 두 번째 도표인 '매도-매수세 동향' 도표입니다.

국민은행이 가격을 조사할 때 부동산 중개업소들을 통해 함께 조사하는 자료인데, 매도세가 우위인지, 매수세가 우위인지, 아니면 비슷한지를 나타낸 그래프입니다. 이 가운데 보시기 편하도록 매수세 우위 그래프만 도표로 나타냈습니다. 2000년 이후부터 조사해서 위의 거래량 도표와는 시기가 딱 맞지는 않지만, 적어도 2000년 이후 매수세가 우위를 나타내 매도세와 매치되면서 거래량이 폭증했을 것으로 추정되는데, 그 패턴이 첫번째의 거래량 도표와 매우 유사함을 쉽게 아실 수 있을 것입니다.

 

 

<도표1> 

(주) 각종 자료로부터 KSERI 작성 

           

                                                                    <도표2>

                                                   (주) 각종 자료로부터 KSERI 작성 

 

 

다시 <도표1>의 아파트 거래량 지표에 대해 다시 말씀드리겠습니다.

이 도표에서 국민은행의 전국 아파트 가격 지수 추이도 함께 나타냈습니다.

사실 호가 위주의 가격이라 사실 정확한 모습은 아니지만, 그렇다고

부동산 정보업체들 지수를 사용할 수는 없는지라 방법이 없습니다.

참고로, 아래 주황색 점선은 전국 아파트 거래량 10만호를 기준으로 제가 표시한 것입니다.

시계열상의 데이터 분석과 경험으로 짐작하건대, 거래량이 이 이하로 떨어질 경우 주택시장이

침체기로 빠져드는 것으로 볼 수 있을 것 같습니다.

 

<도표1>의 거래량 지표를 보면 1차 폭등기 때는 전국적으로 집값이 뛰면서

전국 아파트 거래가 매우 활발했습니다.

2차 폭등기 때는 수도권에서만 집값이 뛰었고 이미 집값이 많이 뛴 상황이어서

거래량이 1차 폭등기 때에 비해 많지 않았습니다.

하지만 2006년 하반기의 거래량은 1차 폭등기 때를 능가하는 것으로

이 때 가격과 거래량이 단기간에 폭증했음을 알 수 있습니다.

 

2차 폭등기 이후인 2007년부터는 거래량이 급감하면서 국토부 실거래가가 점진적으로

하락했음을 여러 차례 설명한 바 있습니다.

사실 2003년 하반기부터 2004년까지 주택시장이 침체되면서 집값이 일정하게 떨어졌는데

(국민은행 가격지수로는 소폭의 조정기로 나오지만 당시 실거래가 조사가 됐다면 상당폭

떨어진 것으로 나타날 것으로 추정됩니다) 아파트 거래량은 2003년 1분기부터 급감했습니다.

거래 침체가 지속되면서 빚을 지고 산 사람들이 몇 분기 후부터 초조한 마음에

집값을 낮춰 내놓게 되는 것이지요.

이런 현상은 2006년 폭등기 이후 거래량 감소에 따른 집값 하락이 2007년 하반기부터

시작됐던 것과도 마찬가지입니다.

즉, 거래량 감소가 집값 하락에 2~4분기 가량 선행하는 것으로 보입니다.

 

이번 주택 거래 침체기는 어떨까요?

사실 2008년말 집값 급락 후 집값이 죽 빠지는 것이 정상이었지만,

부동산에 사활을 건 현 정부의 부동산 투기 선동책으로 억지로 집값을 떠받쳤습니다.

하지만 그렇게 해서 늘어난 거래량이라는 것이 1,2차 폭등기에 비해 매우 미미한 수준이라는 것을

아실 수 있을 것입니다.

 

따라서 이런 식으로 거래량 침체가 2분기 이상 지속된다면 가격은 상당 수준 떨어질 것으로 판단됩니다.

특히 2007년 이후의 가격 하락을 경험한 덕(?)으로 이번에는 아마 거래 침체가 가격 하락 본격화로

이어지는 기간이 훨씬 짧아질 것 같습니다.

전통적인 이사수요가 있었던 2월초까지 거래 상황이 반영된 2월 실거래가 사례로는

아직 가격 하락세가 분명하진 않지만, 3월 실거래가부터는 가격 하락이 확연히 나타날 것으로 보입니다.

 

그런데 이런 상황에서 올해 하반기 이후 출구전략이 본격화된다면 어떤 상황이 연출될까요?

구체적인 언급은 피하겠습니다. 다만 지금 위의 아파트 거래량에서 나타나는 것처럼 이제 주택 가격을 끌어올릴 에너지는 사실상 모두 바닥났습니다. 이는 결국 가격이 국민경제와 일반 가계의 평균적인 체력 수준까지 '정상화'돼 새로운 수요층이 생겨날 때까지 긴 침체 기간을 예고하고 있다는 점만은 분명해 보입니다. 참고하시기 바랍니다.

 

 

사족: 며칠 전 건산연이 '10년내 부동산 불패가 끝난다'고 주장했다면서요.

정말 웃깁니다. 이미 부동산 불패가 끝나가고 있는데, '10년내'라니 말입니다.

어쨌든 기간의 문제가 있기는 하지만 건설업체 부설 연구소조차 부동산 불패가 끝난다는 의견을

내놓는 것을 보니 이미 갈 만큼 간 모양입니다.

 

 

 

 

모든 사람이 땀흘린만큼 제대로 대접받는 건전한 민주주의 시장경제 건설을 위한 좀더 의미 있는 토론과 참여를 원하시는 분들은 김광수경제연구소포럼(http://cafe.daum.net/kseriforum)을 방문해주십시오.


by 선대인 2010. 3. 22. 11:00
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