어제(3월10일) MBC TV의 <뉴스와 경제> 프로그램에 출연해 최근 은마재건축 안전진단 통과를 계기로 강남 재건축시장을 중심으로 수도권 주택시장에 대해 설명하는 시간을 가졌습니다. 그런데 MBC에서 방송한 내용을 상당히 정확하게 풀어서 글로 옮겨놓았네요. 그래서 이걸 그대로 아고라에도 소개하니 참고해보시기 바랍니다. 방송 내용은 아래 링크로 들어가서 보실 수 있습니다.

http://imnews.imbc.com/replay/nw1200/article/2582389_5786.html

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부동산시장 침체 속에 서울 강남 은마아파트가 재건축 판정을 받았습니다.

여러 보도를 통해 알려진 것처럼 재건축 결정이 났어도 이미 오를 대로 오른 강남권 부동산시장은 별다른 움직임이 없어 보입니다.

그렇다면 앞으로 서울 강남을 중심으로 주택시장은 어떤 변화를 보일지 또 정부의 주택정책은 어떤 방향으로 진행될지 오늘 뉴스초점 시간에 알아보겠습니다.

김광수 경제연구소 선대인 부소장 나오셨습니다. 안녕하십니까?

◀ 선대인 부소장/김광수 경제연구소 ▶

안녕하세요.

◀ANC▶

정부가 주택공급을 활성화하기 위해서 여러 규제들을 많이 완화를 했는데 그 대책 중 하나가 은마아파트가 아닌가 싶기도 합니다. 일단 서울지역 재건축이 큰 의미가 있다,그렇게 볼 수 있겠죠?

◀ 선대인 부소장/김광수 경제연구소 ▶

어떤 식으로든 강남 재건축아파트에 미치는 영향이 상당히 큰 아파트라고 볼 수 있죠. 특히 중층 재건축단지, 이른바 대지지분이 상당히 적은 중층재건축단지가 제대로 사업이 진행될 수 있는지를 가늠할 수 있는 굉장히 시금석이 될 만한 아파트단지라고 볼 수 있습니다.

또 규모로 보면 4424세대 정도 되는데요. 또 그런데다가 강남 대치동 노른자위땅에 위치해 있기 때문에 상당히 향후 강남 재건축단지의 향방을 좌우할 수 있는 그런 단지라고 볼 수도 있습니다.

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그런데 앞서도 잠깐 말씀을 드렸습니다마는 발표 이후에 송파, 서초 등 강남 3구 부동산시장에 미치는 영향이 미미한 것으로 나타나고 있지 않습니까?

여러 주택담보대출 기준도 적용이 되고 있는 것 같기도 하고 기대감도 많이 반영됐다는 분석도 있습니다.

◀ 선대인 부소장/김광수 경제연구소 ▶

기본적으로 이미 집값이 너무 많이 올랐습니다. 그래서 사람들이 기대하는 수준 이상으로 올라 있고 또 추가로 집을 사주고 싶어도 빚을 내서 이미 살 사람들이 다 샀기 때문에 더 이상은 추가 매수 세력이 없는 상태입니다.

이건 은마아파트만 그런 게 아니고요, 최근에 수도권 곳곳에서도 미분양 아파트나 또 미입주 아파트들이 넘쳐나고 거래가 줄어들면서 국토부 실제 거래가격 떨어지는 현상도 곳곳에서 속출하고 있거든요.

강남 은마아파트에서 지금 나타나는 현상도 바로 이런 수도권 부동산시장에서 나타나는 흐름들을 어떻게 보면 반영하고 있다고 볼 수 있을 것 같고요. 그런 의미에서 이미 수도권의 부동산시장의 상승에너지는 거의 고갈돼 있는 것 아니냐, 이렇게 보고 있습니다.

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은마아파트를 재건축할 때 사업성을 분석을 하셨더라고요. 그 내용을 간단히설명해 주시죠.

◀ 선대인 부소장/김광수 경제연구소 ▶

저희 연구소가 간단하게 시뮬레이션을 해 봤습니다. 지금 여러 가지 은마아파트를 어떤 식으로 재건축하느냐에 따라서 사업성 판단이 조금씩 달라질 수 있습니다.

그런데 저희가 가능하면 은마아파트를 법정한도인 최고 300% 정도까지 용적률을 올릴 수 있다라고 판단했을 때 그때 지금 사업성을 분석해 보면 어떻게 되느냐 해 봤더니 용적률 300일 경우에도 사업성, 그러니까 수익률이 1.1% 정도밖에 안 됩니다.

이건 무슨 이야기냐면 지금 당장 은마 아파트를 살 수 있는 10억원의 돈이 있으면 그걸 은행에 넣어놓으면 정기예금 이자가 4% 이상은 되지 않습니까?

그런데 그것에도 훨씬 못미치는 1.1%라는 겁니다. 그러니까 그 돈을 가지고 은마아파트에 투자하기보다는 사실은 은행에서 이자를 받아 쓰는 게 훨씬 유리한 거죠.

또 한편으로는 용적률을 조금 현실적으로 낮춰서 270% 수준까지 낮추면 마이너스 7.5%가 돼버립니다. 이미 투자를 했을 경우에 손실을 볼 가능성이 상당히 높다는 겁니다.

특히 지금 일부에서는 은마아파트가 5년 정도 지나면 사업이 될 것처럼 이야기를 하지만 이미 사업성이 없는 가운데 굉장히 무리하게 투자를 하신 분들이 많기 때문에 조합 구성원들 간에 이해관계가 맞부딪치면서 사업이 굉장히 지지부진해질 가능성이 높고요.

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알겠습니다. 지금 말씀하신 대로 기대수익이 그렇게 높지 않은 상황, 오히려 마이너스가 될 수도 있다는 얘기인데요.

안전진단을 앞둔 강남권의 주요 재건축 아파트들이 한 3만가구 정도로 추산이 되고 있더군요. 이 부분에 있어서 봤을 때 재건축을 진행한다 해도 말씀대로라면 이미 가격이 많이 오른 상태에서의 수익성은 은마아파트와 비슷할 수 있다, 이렇게 볼 수 있겠군요?

◀ 선대인 부소장/김광수 경제연구소 ▶

그렇게 봐야 할 것 같습니다. 왜냐하면 은마아파트가 오르면서 주변에 비슷한 조건의 아파트들도 대개 비슷한 그런 판단들을 가지고 투자를 하시거나 집을 사신 분들이 있거든요.

그런 가운데 이미 미래 투자수익이라고 할까요, 그런 부분들을 이미 선반영해서 집값이 오를 대로 올라 있습니다.

물론 개별적으로 아파트 개별사례들마다 조금씩 조건이 다르기 때문에 따로 사업성분석을 해 볼 필요는 있습니다마는 큰 틀에서 보면 이미 강남의 대부분 아파트들, 재건축 아파트들은 이미 사업성이 없을 정도로 너무 집값이 올라 있는 상태다,이렇게 정리할 수 있을 것 같습니다.

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집값이 쓸데없이 높아진 상태, 이걸 부동산 버블이라고 표현을 하고 있는데 이것이 지금 꺼질 때가 됐다는 지적이 많더라고요. 어떻게 보십니까?

◀ 선대인 부소장/김광수 경제연구소 ▶

일반적으로 언론에서 많이 정보들을 접하시기 때문에 저희처럼 기본적인 이른바 원데이터들을 분석하고 해석하는 분들이 보는 것하고 다르게 인식하고 계신데요. 이미 국토부에서 집계하는 실제 거래되는 사례들을 집계하는 실거래가로는 이미 2006년 말이 수도권 핵심지역들의 경우에 고점이었습니다.

그 주변지역은 2008년 상반기가 고점이었고요. 그렇기 때문에 이미 그때 이후로 사실은 집값거품이 서서히 꺼지고 있었습니다.

다만 정부가 지난해 막대한 부동산 부양책을 실시해서 집값을 끌어올리다 보니 많은 분들이 집값은 또 오르나 보다, 이렇게 많은 분들이 생각하고 계신데요.

실제로는 그렇지 않고요, 이미 한 2, 3년 이상 집값이 꺼져가고 있는 상황이라고 볼 수 있을 것 같습니다.

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정부가 현재 보금자리주택, 그리고 신도시 재지정 등등 지방에도 포함해서 많은 공급 중심 주택정책을 펼치고 있는 것 아니겠습니까?이런 방향은 옳다고 보시는지 아닌지...

◀ 선대인 부소장/김광수 경제연구소 ▶

글쎄요. 공급정책 그 자체만 놓고 이야기하기가 지금 어려울 정도로 지금 한국의 부동산 정책은 정권을 거듭하면서 실패를 거듭해 왔고요, 그런 잘못된 정책 틀 속에서 많은 분들이 정부를 신뢰하지 못하고 결국은 머니게임식으로, 그리고 투기하듯이 많이 접근을 했습니다.

그런데 현 정부 들어서도 공급 우선정책 이렇게 실시를 하고 있는데요, 공급을 하는 것 자체는 좋은데요. 정부가 해야 되는 역할을 명확히 했으면 좋겠습니다.

지금 한국의 공공주택 재고비율은 한 4% 정도 됩니다. OECD 평균 20에서 30% 정도 되는데요. 굉장히 낮은 거죠.

특히 서민들을 위해서라면, 특히 공공임대주택, 공공전세주택들을 대량으로 공급하면 서민 주거난을 많이 완화할 수 있는데, 사실 지금 정부는 보금자리주택이라고는 하지만 사실은 임대주택 비율을 오히려 낮춰서 공급하고 있거든요. 그런 면에서 정부가 지금 공공의 역할을 잘못 인식하고 있는 것 아니냐, 걱정이 있습니다.

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알겠습니다. 올해 부동산 시장에 미칠 큰 변수 중 하나, 정부의 금리인상 여부에도 있을 것으로 봐집니다. 이른바 출구전략이라고 할 수도 있을 것 같은데요. 어느 정도나 영향을 미칠 수 있을지 간단히 정리해 주십시오.

◀ 선대인 부소장/김광수 경제연구소 ▶

이렇게 생각해 보시면 되겠습니다. 지금이 사상 최저 수준의 저금리 상태입니다. 그런데도 이미 부동산 시장이 수요가 고갈돼서 더 이상 집값이 오르기 힘든 상황이 됐습니다.

그리고 강남 재건축뿐만 아니고 분당이라든지 용인, 평촌 같은 버블세븐 지역은 이미 고점 대비 20%, 30% 이상씩 집값이 빠져 있습니다.

그런데 여기에서 끝나는 게 아니고요, 앞으로 내려갈 길이 제가 볼 때는 굉장히 깁니다. 특히 부동산시장은 한 10년에서 20년 정도 주기를 그리는데요. 그런 측면에서 보면 이미 고점을 찍고 내리막길을 걷고 있기 때문에 많은 분들께서 이런 부분들을 현명하게 고려하셔서 신중하게 판단하시기 바랍니다.

◀ANC▶

알겠습니다. 오늘 말씀 고맙습니다.

◀ 선대인 부소장/김광수 경제연구소 ▶

감사합니다.

 

 

 

 

모든 사람이 땀흘린만큼 제대로 대접받는 건전한 민주주의 시장경제 건설을 위한 좀더 의미 있는 토론과 참여를 원하시는 분들은 김광수경제연구소포럼(http://cafe.daum.net/kseriforum)을 방문해주십시오.

 

 


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