예전에 우리 연구소가 발송한 자료의 한 부분을 수정, 편집한 글입니다. 참고 바랍니다.

 

 

신규분양 아파트가 대량 미분양이 되는 이유는 아주 간단한 시장경제 원리 또는 경제학적 원리에 근거하고 있다.

 

우선, 개발소재 등을 내세워 건설업체들이 신규 분양가를 높여 투기적 수익이 커지면 커질수록 다른 건설업체들도 엄청난 투기적 고수익을 기대하여 수급 사정을 고려하지 않고 경쟁적으로 투기적 분양에 나서게 된다. 그 결과 순식간에 그 일대에 과다 분양으로 인해 공급과잉이 발생하게 되는 것이다. , 가격이 오르면 공급은 증가한다는 가장 간단한 시장경제 또는 경제학의 기본원리가 작동하는 것이다.  

 

한편, 수요 측면에서는 분양가가 오르면 오를수록 수요자의 소득으로 감당할 수 없게 되어 더 이상 신규분양 아파트를 살 수 없게 된다. 즉 가격이 오르면 수요가 줄어든다는 기본원리가 작동하게 된다.

 

  동시에 신규분양 아파트 분양가가 높아질수록 주변지역의 기존 아파트 가격도 호가 면에서 덩달아 오르게 되는데, 같은 가격이면 새집을 선호하지 낡은 집을 사지 않을 것이라는 것은 기본상식이라고 할 수 있다. 그 결과 신규분양 아파트 외에 기존주택 거래는 사라지게 된다.

 

이를 종합하면 분양가가 높아지면 높아질수록 경쟁적 분양으로 순식간에 공급과잉이 발생하게 되고 반대로 수요는 급감해 미분양이 급증하게 되며, 기존 아파트는 거래가 사라지게 된다.

 

이처럼 미분양이 급증하고 기존 아파트의 거래가 사라지게 되면 더 이상 자력에 의한 가격상승은 불가능해지게 된다. 투기를 지탱할 수 있는 경제적 여력이 한계에 도달하게 되면 그 때부터 가격이 본격적으로 하락하기 시작하게 된다고 할 수 있다  

 

이미 각 지역별로 시차는 있으나 대략 수도권은 2007년부터, 충청지역 등은 2006년부터 투기를 지탱해줄 수 있는 투기 가능 계층(의사나 변호사 등 고소득 계층과 정치인, 공무원, 기업인 등)의 경제적 여력이 한계에 부딪히기 시작해 미분양이 늘어나고 기존 아파트 거래는 사라지면서 실거래 가격이 하락하기 시작했다.

 

이런 구조적 한계가 노출된 상황에서 아무리 정부와 여당이 온갖 투기조장책을 남발하고 건설업체가 분양실적 부풀리기를 하며 언론들이 투기 선동을 한다고 해도 부동산시장의 펀더멘털과 시장경제의 기본원리를 이길 수는 없는 것이다.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

모든 사람이 땀흘린만큼 제대로 대접받는 건전한 민주주의 시장경제 건설을 위한 좀더 의미 있는 토론과 참여를 원하시는 분들은 김광수경제연구소포럼(http://cafe.daum.net/kseriforum)을 방문해주십시오.

 

 

 


by 선대인 2010. 3. 4. 09:16
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