몇 달 전까지 '대세상승'이니 '폭등'이니 하는 단어들을 연일 쏟아내던 신문들이 이제는

'침체' '부도설' 미분양 급증' 등의 표현들을 잇따라 쏟아냅니다.

도대체 겨우 몇 달 앞을 내다보지도 못하고 소비자들을 현혹했던 지면에 대한 일말의 반성도 없이 말입니다.

그러면서도 여전히 지면 한 켠에서는 '알짜 미분양'이니 '오를 곳은 오른다'는 둥 사람들을 현혹하는

궤변들을 계속 늘어놓으며 선동하고 있습니다.

 

한편으로는 주택 시장 침체가 계속되니 분양가 상한제 폐지, 양도소득세 감면 혜택 연장, 심지어 dti규제 완화를

'부동산 투기 선동 전문가'들이나 건설업계의 주장을 그대로 싣습니다. 

분양가 상한제 폐지하고 양도소득세 감면 혜택을 연장해보라고 하시죠.

그러면 지금의 고분양가 아파트가 팔리는지 한 번 보죠.

이미 마른 수건 짜내듯 마지막 남은 수요까지

다 짜내 부동산 투기 부양을 한 결과 이제 지금 가격대에 집을 살 수요는 이미 거의 고갈됐습니다.

 

이런 판에 분양가를 내리지 않고 분양가 상한제 폐지해 계속 분양가를 올리겠다면 올려보라는 것이지요.

그리고 그동안 양도소득세 감면 혜택이 안 돼 지난해 10월 이후 대규모 미분양이 났나요?

그동안에도 효과가 없었는데, 연장한다고 해서 효과가 있을 리 없지요.

그렇게라도 해보겠다면 하라는 겁니다.

DTI규제 완화요? 이것도 선심 써서 하라고 하지요, 뭐.

사실 현재 경제 상황을 제대로 알고 있고, 정부가 제 정신이라면 지금 DTI규제는 절대

풀어서 안 될 시기라는 것을 알겠지만, 그래도 풀라고 해보지요.

대신 DTI규제 풀면 금리 인상 시기를 몇 달은 앞당기게 된다는 점을 잊어서는 안 될 겁니다.

  

 

한편으로는 주택 시장이 완연한 침체기에 접어드니 '외환위기 때처럼 부동산 부양책을 써야 한다'고 주장합니다.

예를 들어, 오늘 자 서울신문이 보도한 "2010년 봄 주택시장이 중병에 걸린 듯하다"라는 기사의 마지막에 나오는 표현처럼 말입니다. 참고로 주택산업연구원은 주택건설협회의 부설 연구소입니다. 건산연과 함께 대표적인 건설업자들 이해 대변 연구기관인 셈이지요.

 

주택산업연구원 권주안 금융경제연구실장은 "거래가 없고 신규 시장도 위축됐다는 것은 시장 침체가 그만큼 심화되어 있다는 것"이라면서 "외환위기 당시 각종 세제 완화 등 주택시장을 살리기 위한 대책이 나왔던 것을 되새겨볼 필요가 있다."고 지적했다.

 

긴 말하지 않겠습니다.

제가 몇 차례 보여드린 바 있지만 국내 주택시장 사이클을 나타낸 도표를 보십시오.

서울 한강 이남 11개구의 물가 상승률을 반영한 실질가격으로 나타낸 집값 추이입니다.

이를 보면 아시겠지만 한국의 집값은 계속 오른 것이 아니라 세계 여느 나라처럼 뚜렷한

부동산 경기 사이클을 나타내고 있습니다.

 

 

 

 

 

지금은 외환위기 이후 진행된 부동산 버블이 2006년말 꼭지점을 찍고 대세하락 과정에 있습니다.

부동산 중개업소들 호가 위주로 작성된 국민은행 가격지수로도 이런 흐름이 나타나고 있습니다.

 

자, 그런데 도표에서 외환위기 때는 사실 1996년경 이미 바닥에 이르렀다가 반등할 무렵

다시 바닥이 꺼진 경우입니다. 그때는 부동산 버블은 전혀 없었기에 부동산 부양책이 어느 정도 필요했고

효과적이었습니다.

 

하지만, 지금은 어떻습니까? 고점 대비로는 많이 꺾였다고 하지만 여전히 부동산 가격이 너무 높은

상태입니다. 아직은 부동산 거품을 뺄 때이지 부동산 부양책을 쓸 때가 아닙니다.

그리고 정부가 부동산 부양책을 2008년 하반기부터 무지막지하게 이미 쏟아내서 실행되고 있습니다.

그런데도 무너지는 부동산 시장을 더 이상 떠받치지 못하고 있는 것입니다.

분양가 상한제 폐지하는 등 건설업체들이 원하는 대로 하라고 해주십시오.

그 약발이 얼마나 가는지 한 번 지켜보지요.

 

지금이 부동산 거품을 빼야 하는지, 부동산 부양책을 써야 하는지도 모르는 정부,

부동산 정책이라고 하면 집값 올리기 정책밖에 모르는 정부는 호되게 당해봐야

정신을 차립니다. 다만 애꿎은 서민 가계들도 덩달아 무능한 정부의 잘못으로 인한 피해를

입어야 한다는 게 마음 아플 뿐입니다.

 

 

모든 사람이 땀흘린만큼 제대로 대접받는 건전한 민주주의 시장경제 건설을 위한 좀더 의미 있는 토론과 참여를 원하시는 분들은 김광수경제연구소포럼(http://cafe.daum.net/kseriforum)을 방문해주십시오.

 


by 선대인 2010. 3. 3. 11:49
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