그저께 시사기획 텐에서 방영한 <미분양 아파트의 진실>편은 현재 주택시장 상황을 살펴보고 향후 주택시장의 흐름을 전망한 프로그램이었습니다. 익히 아시듯이 김재영 PD 등이 진행한 PD수첩의 부동산시장 관련 프로그램들은 현실 주택시장 상황을 매우 생생한 탐사보도를 통해 일반인들에게 소상히 알려주었고, 강한 인상을 남겼습니다. 반면 그제 방영한 KBS 시사기획 텐은 미분양 물량의 허위 신고에 대한 탐사보도의 측면도 있었지만, 현재 일반 가계, 특히 장래 주요 주택수요층인 젊은이들의 소득 수준에 비해 집값이 얼마나 높은지, 그리고 향후 인구구조 변화 측면에서 아파트 공급이 얼마나 과잉인 상태인지를 차분하고 설득력 있게 보여줬습니다. 특히 일반 시청자들이 편안하게 볼 수 있도록 간간이 위트 있게, 그리고 약간은 스타일리시하게 프로그램 구성을 해서 PD수첩과는 또 다른 맛을 느끼게 해줬습니다.

 

각설하고, 그제 방영 내용 가운데 판교 아파트 매입자의 연령대별 매입 실태를 잠깐 소개하는 장면이 있었는데요. 아마 짧게 지나가서 자세히 보시지 못했을 것입니다. 그래서 그 부분에 대해 제가 보충 설명을 드리겠습니다. 참고로, 아래 글은 <시사경제> 올해 1월 15일자 '판교신도시 아파트 소유자의 부채 실태 분석'에서 소개한 내용 일부를 수정한 것입니다. 참고해 보십시오.

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아래 <도표>를 참고로 아파트 매입자의 연령대별로 부채실태를 살펴보자. 설명의 편의상 판교1단지 휴먼시아 입주가구만을 분석 대상으로 삼았다. 우선 매입자의 연령대별 구성을 보면 40대가 47.8%로 전체의 절반 가까이를 차지했으며 이어 50대가 21.8%, 30 20.1%의 순으로 나타났다. 30대의 경우 34세까지가 3.6% 정도에 불과했으며 거의 대부분 30대 후반이었다. 이어 60대가 7.1%, 70대 이상이 2.9%였고, 20대의 경우는 0.3%로 단 두 명에 불과했다.

 

<도표> 매입자 연령대별 금융부채 현황

 

 

 

 

 

 

여기에서 명확히 알 수 있듯이 판교 아파트 매입자는 40대를 중심으로 30대 후반부터 50대까지가 대부분임을 알 수 있다. 이는 주택의 수요 연령대가 보통 35~55세 사이라는 일반적인 인식과도 대체로 일치하는 것이라고 볼 수 있다. 30대 전반까지는 가정을 꾸린 초기 단계로 주택을 매입할만큼 충분한 소득 기반을 갖추지 못한 상태이며, 60대 이상의 경우에는 이미 집을 장만했거나 직장 은퇴 후 자녀들을 출가시키면서 오히려 있던 집을 줄이거나 처분하는 경우가 많기 때문으로 보인다.

 

또 연령대별로 매입자의 근저당 설정가구 비율을 보면 70대의 경우 37.5%에 불과하지만 연령대가 낮아질수록 비율이 높아져 40대는 80.0%, 30대는 80.7%까지 치솟았다. 주택 매입의 중핵을 이루는 40대와 아직 경제적 기반이 견고하지 못한 30대 매입자의 대부분이 투기 선동에 휩쓸려 무리하게 고가의 아파트를 분양받거나 매입한 것으로 추정되는 것이다. 장시간의 학습효과를 통해 '부동산 불패신화'에 젖어 있는 50,60대의 뒤를 따라 아직 충분한 경제력을 갖추지 못한 30,40대가 무리하게 아파트를 매입한 것이라고 할 수 있다. 하지만 이들이 산 아파트를 받쳐줄 30대 전반 이전의 잠재 수요자는 인구구조상 시간이 갈수록 급격히 줄게 되는 한편 '88만원세대'로 상징되듯 소득수준 또한 빠른 속도로 악화되고 있다. 따라서 연령대별 아파트 매입자의 특성을 고려하더라도 현재 지나치게 높은 국내 주택 가격은 유지하기 어렵다고 봐야 한다.

 

더구나 수도권 2기 신도시의 대명사인 판교신도시 아파트의 경우에도 대부분의 매입자들이 평균 약 3억원 정도의 거액의 부채를 안고 아파트를 산 것으로 나타났다. 서울 강남 재건축을 대표하는 대치동 은마아파트와 마찬가지로 도저히 일반 가계들이 감당하기 어려운 수준의 부채를 지고 아파트 투기에 뛰어든 것으로 보인다. 건설업계와 부동산업계는 물론 이들을 대변하는 대다수 신문들이 주장한 공급 부족론에 기대 강남 대체 신도시를 건설해 강남 집값을 잡겠다고 했던 정부의 주장과는 달리 판교신도시의 분양시장 또한 투기 범벅이어서 오히려 투기를 잡기는커녕 부동산 투기를 더욱 부추겼을 공산이 컸음이 다시 드러난 것이다.

 

정부의 이 같은 정책실패로 인해 평범한 가계들이 부동산 투기에 눈이 멀어 대거 빚더미에 올라앉게 됐음에도 불구하고 당시 정책결정을 주도한 관료들 가운데 어떤 이도 상응하는 처벌이나 불이익을 받지 않고 있다. 일반 가계만이 잔뜩 빚을 진 채 주택 가격이 떨어질까 노심초사하고 있을 뿐이다.




모든 사람이 땀흘린만큼 제대로 대접받는 건전한 민주주의 시장경제 건설을 위한 좀더 의미 있는 토론과 참여를 원하시는 분들은 김광수경제연구소포럼(http://cafe.daum.net/kseriforum)을 방문해주십시오.

 

by 선대인 2010. 2. 25. 10:43
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