그제 국토해양부가 2010년 1월 아파트 거래량을 집계해 발표했습니다.

보도자료를 통해 발표하는 이 아파트 거래량은

역시 국토부가 토지주택공사를 통해 위탁운영하는

온나라부동산포털의 아파트 거래량과는 상당한 차이를 보입니다.

예를 들어, 2010년 1월 현재 국토부 보도자료상의 서울시 아파트 거래량은

3430 건, 온나라포털의 거래량은 6393건의 절반 정도밖에 안 됩니다. 

물론 온나라포털의 아파트 거래량은 매매 외에도 양도나 신탁 등의

경우에도 포함돼 있지만 매매 거래가 전체 거래의 80% 전후를 차지한다는 점을 고려하면

왜 이 정도의 큰 차이가 나타나는지 이해하기 어렵습니다.

자신들이 집계하는 거래량 통계조차 제각각이니 한심하기 짝이 없습니다.

어쨌거나 거래량의 전반적인 추이를 보여주는 측면에서는 두 통계가

거의 비슷한 흐름을 보이고 있습니다.

 

각설하고, 온나라포털상의 거래량 추이를 한 번 살펴봅시다.

아래 <도표1>을 보면 알겠지만, 수도권과 서울, 경기, 인천지역의

2006년 하반기는커녕 2009년 고점과 비교해도

아파트 거래량이 크게 줄었고, 계속 줄어들고 있습니다.

그 결과 거래량이 2008년 8월 수준까지 줄어들었습니다.

특히 인천의 경우에는 역대 최저 수준까지 내려갔습니다.

이 같은 거래량 감소 추세가 언제까지, 어느 정도까지 진행될지는 모르겠지만,

이런 추세로 몇 달 간 더 진행된다면 실거래가가 추가로 상당폭 떨어지게 될 것으로 보입니다.

 

 

 

<도표2>는 국토부 보도자료상의 아파트 거래량 발표 추이입니다.

전국, 수도권, 서울의 아파트 거래량이 계속 줄고 있어 추가 설명은

생략하겠습니다.

다만 강남3구의 아파트 거래량은 지난해 9월 이후 급감한 뒤

두 달 연속 반등했습니다.

보통 강남3구가 부동산시장의 선도지표로 알려져 있지만,

이번에는 그렇게 되기 어려울 것으로 보입니다. 

우선, 강남3구의 거래량 상승폭이 둔화되고 있어 강남3구조차 지난해와 같은 급격한

거래량 증가로 이어질 가능성은 높지 않아 보입니다.

또한 강남3구의 경우 안전진단 통과 기대감이나 지구단위 계획 정비 등을

소재로 실거래가도 다소 올랐으나 그 같은 기대감은 이미

가격에 다 반영된 것으로 보입니다. 실제로 부동산 찌라시들의 보도에서도

이미 추격매수가 끊어졌다는 보도가 나올 지경이니까요.

 

  

반면 강남3구 이외 수도권 주요 지역들의 실거래가는

약보합세 또는 하락세를 지속하고 있습니다.

심지어는 몇 달째 거래가 실종된 아파트들도 속출하고 있습니다.

이런 추세가 몇 개월 더 지속된다면 실거래가 하락도

더욱 본격화될 것으로 보입니다. 참고바랍니다.

 

 

모든 사람이 땀흘린만큼 제대로 대접받는 건전한 민주주의 시장경제 건설을 위한 좀더 의미 있는 토론과 참여를 원하시는 분들은 김광수경제연구소포럼(http://cafe.daum.net/kseriforum)을 방문해주십시오.

 

by 선대인 2010. 2. 19. 09:04
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