안녕하세요. 보신 분들은 아시겠지만, 그저께 100분토론에 출연했었습니다. 출연 이후 다음 아고라 게시판, 100분토론 게시판, 저희 김광수경제연구소포럼 게시판, 아름사 게시판, 그리고 여기 제 블로그 '불량사회'를 통해 많은 분들께서 격려와 성원, 그리고 조언을 보내주셔서 황송하면서도 무한한 감사를 느낍니다. 그냥 제가 평소 연구하고 생각한 것을 토론에서 그대로 말했을 뿐인데, 이렇게 많은 분들께서 뜨거운 반응을 보여주시는 것을 보고 저도 놀랐습니다. 한편으로는 이런 상식적인 이야기에 얼마나 많은 분들이 목말라 했는지 다시 한 번 느꼈습니다. 그리고 제 한 몸 힘들더라도 이런 분들의 기대와 성원에 부응하기 위해서라도 더욱 열심히 노력해야 하겠다는 다짐을 했습니다.

  

사실 토론에 나갈 때마다 제가 제대로 못해서 안 그래도 서러운 분들 목소리 제대로 전달하지 못하면 어떻게 하나, 또 괜히 연구소 이미지만 떨어뜨리는 것 아닐까 걱정하게 됩니다. 그런 점에서 그제 토론에 준비를 많이 하고 갔습니다.

 

그런데 토론의 틀거리가 도시계획 전공한 다른 세 분 패널의 입맛에 맞춰 짜여져 있었던 데다

그나마도 토론 진도가 안 나가니 사실 정부 정책에 대해서나 금리나 가계 부채 등 부동산 문제를 둘러싼 경제 문제들, 그리고 부동산문제가 한국경제, 사회 전반에 미치는 폐해 등에 대해 이야기할 틈이 없더군요.

더구나 토론이 끝나갈 때쯤 할 말은 많은데 시간이 없으니 자꾸 마음이 조급해졌습니다.

그래서 최대한 말을 많이 하려고 하다보니 다소 흥분한 것처럼 보였는지 모르겠지만,

사실 흥분한 것은 아니었습니다.

 

토론하면서 느낀 또 한 가지는 왜 우리는 토론 프로그램 수준을 높일 수  없을까,

왜 전문가라는 사람들의 전문성이 기존 언론의 엉터리 보도 수준을 뛰어넘지 못할까 하는

안타까움도 느꼈습니다.

 

그리고 아래에서 100분토론 때 준비했던 도표들을 소개합니다. 토론 때는 시간 제약 때문에 제대로

다 보여드리지 못했는데, 이 곳 게시판을 통해 다시 소개할까 합니다. 일부 도표는 이미 한두 차례 사용했던 자료지만, 궁금해하실 분들을 위해 준비했던 도표를 다시 보여드립니다.

 

도표에서 제가 주로 보여드리고자 했던 것은 국토부 실거래가 자료들입니다. 실거래가는 2006년 1월부터 집계가 시작됐는데, 그때 이후 최근까지 수도권 주요 아파트 단지별로 실거래가 추이를 보여드립니다. 여기에서 보여드리는 도표뿐만 아니라 저희 연구소는 전국 수천 개 주요 아파트 단지의 실거래가 추이를 살펴봤습니다. 그 결과 이른바 '버블 세븐'과 수원, 일산, 파주 등 그외 수도권 대부분 주요 도시들의 아파트 가격은 2006년 말에 고점을 찍었고, 그외 서울의 강북 노도강이나 경기 의정부, 동두천 및 인천 등 수도권 외곽은 2008년 상반기에 고점을 찍었음이 분명합니다. 물론 이명박 정부의 정권의 사활을 건 무지막지한 부동산 부양책으로 지난해 6개월 가량 상승했지만, 주로 강남 재건축 단지 위주의 상승세였을 뿐 수도권 대부분 지역의 상승세는 언론 보도와는 달리 크지 않았습니다. 그리고 이미 지난해 6,7월부터는 상승 여력이 꺾이고 있었고, 9월 이후부터는 다시 떨어지는 지역이 대부분입니다. 이렇게 볼 때 이미 대세는 꺾여 내리막길을 걷고 있습니다. 현재를 기준으로 하면 수도권의 대다수 아파트는 고점 대비 최소 -10~20% 가량은 떨어져 있습니다.

 

그런데 아파트 소유자들의 희망 가격에 근거한 부동산 중개업소들의 호가 중심의 국민은행 가격지수나, 부동산 정보업체들의 지수는 여전히 올라가고 있는 것입니다. 이들의 호가 지수는 2006년 집값 폭등기 때까지는 실거래가와의 괴리가 크지 않았으나, 2007년 이후 주택 침체기 이후로는 실거래가와 계속 괴리가 벌어지고 있습니다. 따라서 큰 틀에서 계속 수도권 아파트 가격이 떨어졌는데도 이들 가격 지수는 계속 오르고 있는 것으로 나타납니다. 한마디로 사기와 조작의 산물입니다. 1~4번까지의 도표를 보신 다음에 5번 도표를 보시면 얼마나 심각한 괴리가 있는지를 아실 수 있을 것입니다. 다시 한 번 말씀드리지만 여기에서 보여드리는 도표는 일부일뿐이지만, 우리 연구소가 조사, 분석한 거의 대부분의 아파트 단지도 거의 비슷한 패턴을 보이고 있다는 점을 강조합니다. 호가 위주의 언론 선동에 휘둘리지 마시고 냉철하게 판단하시길 부탁드립니다. 그리고 더욱 중요한 것은 아파트 거품을 빼나가야 이 나라에 희망이 있다는 것입니다.

 

참고하시기 바랍니다. 다시 한 번 보내주신 격려와 성원에 감사드립니다.

좋은 주말들 보내세요. 꾸벅^^

 

 

 

<도표1>강남의 대표적 아파트들. 강남에서 고점을 회복한 것은 개포 주공 등 저층 재건축 일부 단지밖에 없습니다. 그나마도 이미 집값이 너무 올라 더 이상 사업성이 없습니다. 이미 '폭탄 돌리기'국면입니다.

 

 

<도표2> 다른 버블 세븐의 핵심이었던 분당과 용인의 아파트 사례들입니다.

 

 

<도표3> 버블 세븐 외의 다른 수도권 주요 아파트 단지들인 일산과 수원의 아파트들.

 

 

 

<도표4> 수도권 핵심 지역과 달리 2008년 상반기가 고점이었던 인천과 서울 동북지역 아파트. 역시나 고점 수준을 회복하지 못하고 다시 꺾이고 있습니다.

 

 

 

<도표5> 그런데 실제 거래가격과는 달리 국민은행 가격지수와 부동산업체 가격지수는 계속 올라가는

것으로 나오는군요. 이미 실거래가 기준으로 고점 대비 최소 -10~20%씩 떨어져 있는데도 이들 지수는 오히려 고점보다 훨씬 더 올라가 있습니다. 호가 거품에 기반한 가격 지수일 뿐입니다. 더구나 국민은행 가격지수는 양반이지, 사설 부동산 정보업체들의 가격지수는 더 뛰고 있습니다. 이런 조작에 가까운 가격지수를 가지고 언론에서는 연일 얼마가 올랐네, 하면서 떠들어대고 있는 것입니다. 절대 언론의 선동보도에 휘둘리지 말고 냉철하게 판단하셔야 합니다.

 

 

 

<도표6> 마지막으로 거래량 추이를 보시면 2006년 폭등기 때 거래량이 크게 늘었지만 당시 빚을 내서 살 사람들도 모두 사버렸기 때문에 추가 매수세력이 끊겨 버렸습니다. 그래서 2007년 이후 거래량이 급감하면서

빚을 많이 진 급한 매도자들이 집을 내놓으면서 실거래가가 떨어지는 현상이 발생했습니다. 2008년 뉴타운 바람이 불 때나 지난해 정부 부양책에 따른 빚 내서 투자한 수요가 늘어나 거래량이 증가했으나, 다시 급격히 거래량이 줄고 있습니다. 지난해 6개월의 반등기도 사실상 종료된 것니다. 거래량이 줄면서 2007년 이후 진행됐던 "거래량 감소+ 실거래가 하락"이라는 패턴이 다시 작동하고 있습니다.

 

 

 

 

정부와 언론이 왜곡하는 경제 정보를 꿰뚫어보고 건전한 민주주의 시장경제 건설을 위한 좀더 의미 있는 토론과 참여를 원하시는 분들은 김광수경제연구소포럼(http://cafe.daum.net/kseriforum)을 방문해주십시오.

by 선대인 2010. 2. 6. 09:28
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  • Munkassaunk 2013.05.14 00:19 ADDR EDIT/DEL REPLY

    Barcelona micro-blog remains to be struggling to fix their unique issues throughout support. Should the The spanish language lessons Barcelona this year what exactly area, that is definitely when compared with preceding seasons, somewhat weak support. "Daily sports newspaper" said, formidable support need to grow to be Barca's liability, definitely not wish to shut this Little league definitely not necessary options, considering the fire burned, Barcelona must be thorough. However, so that you can strengthen this defense line, soon after activation, Barcelona high-rise as well done this steps, according to this "daily sports newspaper" described, Barcelona possess reached an agreement using Dortmund, [url=http://2013soccerjerseys.bravesites.com/]Cheap Soccer jerseys[/url] this purple and also random world army could be the tariff of 25000000 euros for you to bring in Hummel J Vilanova today, although simply no judgement have been made, mainly because they're much more including Tiago Silva. For Barcelona exclusively intend to make small car repairs or large reform issues, this admirers have a warmed conversation, although there's no-one to refuse this, following a defense Barcelona high-rise could be the earliest number of defining this team. Barcelona coach class would not imagine baltra, Cameroon tune includes proved definitely not suited to using throughout Zhongwei, and the chance for Eric Abidal future year departing Barcelona can be great. However, Barcelona future year exclusively Peake, Puyol these a couple authentic Zhongwei, and also Puyol injuries, using time frame is just not certain. The introduction of Hummel J is becoming a new depressing issue of the moment for you to Barcelona, and also Hummel J him self with the unique way, time period of the Barcelona yearning. Hummel J downloaded a new kissing a new girl's shots with his or her twittollower accounts, but the most fascinating can be, lurking behind the two individuals, a new Barca shirt seeing that track record speech. It truly is difficult to place a new Barca shirt seeing that explanation with Hummel J for you to sign up for Nokamp, but the truth is can imagine, this graphic may be a sign for Hummel J for you to convey. Hummel J can be File a suit pizza thunder structure preferred gamers including Tiago Silva, Villanova, although judging from your provide scenario, can be much more difficult when compared with drill down dug Tiago Hummel J by Dortmund, Silva by Venice St germain. [url=http://2013soccerjerseys.bravesites.com/]Cheap Soccer jerseys[/url] Vilanova must be handy. Thursday night time I got within the Standford conduit, enjoying Chelsea conquer Basel, into your Europa Little league play-off adventure, let me probably the most outstanding could be the main of the team, a fantastic however in that, however by Chelsea's requirements, the overall performance this year may be ups and downs. Made by this point of view, you will need to congratulate this interim coach Benitez, mainly because he was in a new difficult ecosystem, doing a great position. Although when you take a seat within the stalls, seeing that When i seen this Chelsea gamers, you may catch the attention of a new summary, that's the team's line-up is just not wanted, a lot of at the moment, the present staff have been superior. Although I really believe this, so that you can make this Chelsea squad much more balanced, many people however will need unique health supplement. Mourinho at first could possibly be trying to find a new striker, his or her old Chelsea can be built all over Drogba, can be anticipated, he will repeat.

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