지난해 10월부터 수도권에서 미분양 주택이 빠른 속도로 급증하고 있다. 건설업체가 사실상 허위로 신고하는 국토부 집계자료로는 수천호 정도밖에 늘어나지 않고 있지만, 실제로는 지난해 10월 이후 아무리 적게 잡아도 최소 2만호이상, 많게는 4만호 이상의 미분양 물량이 늘어났다. 기존에 수도권에서만 약 2만호 가량의 미분양 물량이 적체돼 있었는데, 여기에 추가로 2만호~4만호 이상의 미분양 물량이 늘어난 것이다. 이 같은 미분양 물량 추산에 대해서는 이른바 ‘부동산 찌라시’라고 하는 일부 경제신문들에서조차 건설업계 등의 이야기를 들어 기사화했으니 크게 틀리지 않을 것이다.


이 같은 사태에 대해 우리 연구소는 이미 지난해부터 지속적으로 경고했다. 지난해 정부의 미분양 물량 매입과 도산한 건설업체들의 분양 취소, 그리고 건설사들의 사기적인 판촉 활동 등으로 미분양 물량이 줄어든 것처럼 보이지만, 다시 늘 수밖에 없을 것이라고 경고했다. 또한 필자는 건설사들에 대해서도 더 이상 일반 가계들을 대상으로 투기 바람을 잔뜩 집어넣어 분양에 성공하기는 어려울 것이라고 경고한 바 있다. 그런데도 주택건설업체들은 현 정부의 수단방법을 가리지 않는 부동산 부양책에 기대 분양가 거품을 빼기는커녕 부동산 광고에 굶주린 언론을 광고로 구워삶으며 밀어내기 분양을 일삼았다. 하지만 이런 식으로는 전국적으로 막대하게 쌓인 미분양물량을 해소하지 못한다.


필자가 이런 경고를 할 때 일부에서는 주택경기가 계속 악화되면 주택 공급 물량이 줄어들 수 있지 않느냐고 반문하기도 했다. 물론 어느 정도는 그렇다. 하지만, 그 같은 주택공급은 유효수요에 비해 상대적 관점에서 봐야 한다. 이미 유효수요에 비해 지나치게 주택이 공급돼 있고 수년간의 잠재 수요조차 투기 바람을 불러일으켜  앞당겨 소진해버린 상황이다. 이런 상황에서 주택 공급이 상대적으로 줄어든다고 해서 당장 미분양 물량을 단기간 내에 해소할 수 있을 것으로 보는 것은 착각이다. 더구나 상당수의 물량들은 이미 토지보상이 이뤄지고, 분양되거나 일정한 행정적 절차가 진행돼 조금 늦춰지더라도 공급 자체가 안 될 수 없는 상황이다. 당장 2009년 상반기에 버블세븐이 꿈틀거리고 인천 청라 등에서 분양 바람을 일으키는데 성공하니 하반기 수도권 분양 물량이 폭증했다. 주택건설업체들이 기회를 봐서 분양하려는 물량들을 여전히 막대하게 보유하고 있다는 증거다.


어떤 분들은 주택경기가 얼어붙는데 왜 건설업체들이 계속 주택을 지어대는지 궁금할 것이다. 건설업체들, 특히 상위 10위권의 재벌 건설업체들을 제외한 대다수 중견주택건설업체들은 막대한 미분양물량에 자금이 묶여 자금난에 시달리기 때문에 어떤 식으로든 분양해서 ‘돌려막기’를 할 수밖에 없는 형편이다. 각 건설업체들이 분양수입이 없는 채로 이미 사놓은 2~3년치 주택 지을 택지를 금융비용만 물면서 계속 놀릴 수 있을까.


이렇게 말하면 “건설업체들이 바보도 아니고 미분양 날 줄 알면서 그렇게 하겠느냐”고 말할지도 모른다. 그렇다. 그들은 바보가 아니다. 하지만 주택경기 사이클에 따른 공급시차 때문에 주택 과잉 공급은 일어날 가능성이 매우 높다. 특히 주택은 공급 계획과 완공 사이에 짧게는 2~3년, 길게는 4~5년 가량 걸리기 때문에 더더욱 이 같은 양상이 심하게 나타난다. 생각해보라. 미국의 건설업체들은 바보여서 부동산 거품이 꺼질 줄 모르고 집들을 지어댔겠나. 한국의 경우는 건설업계가 선분양제 등 절대적으로 공급자에 유리한 제도 때문에 주택공급 사이클 진폭이 훨씬 더 크다. 당장 멀리 보지 않아도, 국내 건설업체들이 모두 바보여서 광주, 대구, 부산 등 지방과 경기도 등 수도권에 팔리지 않는 미분양 물량을 잔뜩 안고 있겠나.


자, 그러면 이 같은 미분양 물량 증가가 향후 집값에 어떤 영향을 미칠지를 생각해보자. 대구시의 사례를 보면, 이 같은 미분양 물량은 어느 순간 확 늘어나면서 집값 급락으로 다시 이어질 수 있음을 알 수 있다. <도표1>을 보면 대구시의 집값은 2006년 6월을 정점으로 꺾이기 시작해 줄곧 내리막길을 걷고 있다. 집값 급락과 거래 위축이 동반되면서 2005년 3000호를 조금 넘던 대구시 미분양 물량은 이후 기하급수적으로 늘어 2006년 8700호로 늘었다. 2008년에는 미분양물량이 2만호를 넘어버렸다. 그러는 가운데 대구시의 집값은 하락세를 면치 못하고 있다. 대구시 사례를 보면 이처럼 집값 하락과 미분양 물량 증가의 상관관계는 상당히 명확하다.

 

<도표1> 대구시의 미분양 물량과 주택가격 변동 추이

(주)국민은행 및 국토해양부 자료로부터 KSERI 작성.

 


수도권 미분양 물량의 대부분을 차지하는 경기도도 시차는 있지만 비슷한 양상을 보이고 있다. 경기도 미분양 물량도 2006년 3800호 수준이던 것이 불과 2년 만에 2만2000호를 넘어버렸다. 2006년말 집값 폭등 후 2007년 초부터 거래가 주춤해지면서 미분양 물량이 급증하는 가운데 집값도 서서히 꺾이기 시작한 것이다. 하지만 지난해 정부의 사력을 다한 경기 부양책과 미분양 물량 해소책으로 이 같은 추세는 일단 멈추는 것처럼 보였다. 하지만 건설업체들의 고분양가 밀어내기 분양으로 위에서 설명했듯이 수도권의 미분양 물량은 다시 급증해 현재 최소 4만호 이상으로 추산된다. 사실상 현재 수도권의 미분양 물량은  지역별 인구와 경제력 등을 감안하더라도 대구시의 2006~2007년 정도 상황에 와 있다고 판단된다. 지방에서 시작된 미분양 물량 충격이 서서히 북상하면서 수도권 주택시장의 목을 조여오고 있는 것이다.


정부가 외환위기 이후 3배 이상 늘어난 건설업체들의 자연스러운 구조조정을 유도했으면 그나마 주택 공급이 줄어들 것이다. 그런데 정부가 대대적 부양책을 동원해 구조조정을 사실상 막고 있다. 정부가 말로는 ‘구조조정’을 떠들어대지만, 버티면 결국 정부가 도와준다는 것을 아는 건설업체들이 자발적으로 구조조정에 나서겠는가. 최대한 버틸 수 있는 데까지 버틸 것이다. 그러는 가운데 상당수 기업들이 좀비기업으로 전락해 ‘정부 재정 호흡기’로 간신히 연명하면서 주택사업을 계속 벌이게 될 것이다.


그것이 심화하면 결국 공급 초과로 덤핑경쟁이 벌어져 분양가를 지속적으로 낮출 수밖에 없다. ‘미분양 아파트 분양가 인하 도미노’라는 지난해 기사 보도에서 보듯이 이미 그 같은 징후가 곳곳에서 나타나고 있다. 이는 아직 초기 단계여서 생색내기 수준일 뿐이다. 하지만, 향후 2~3년 안에 이런 상황은 더욱 확대되고 분양가 인하폭도 훨씬 커질 것이다. 아마 미분양 물량을 제대로 해소하지 못하는 주택건설업체들은 2~3년 안에 본격적으로 파산하기 시작할 것이다. 그때가 되면 건설업체들은 잠재 수요자들에게 집을 사달라고 애걸하게 될 것이다. 그런 식으로 신규 주택의 분양가가 인하하면 기존 집값 또한 떨어질 것임은 불문가지다.


지금 분양시장에 뛰어들면 건설업체들 좋은 일만 시켜주는 것이다. 그리고 2~3년 후 아파트 분양가를 주변 시세에 맞춰 내려달라고 시위를 하게 될지도 모른다. 하지만 건설업체들이 자선사업가들도 아니고 그렇게 해서 아파트 분양가를 내려줄 리 만무하다. 이웃 일본에서도 버블 붕괴 후 계약한 집값의 인하를 요구하는 숱한 송사가 벌어졌지만 단 한 건도 승소하지 못했다. 이 글을 읽는 분들은 ‘미분양 폭탄 처리반’이 되지 않기를 진심으로 바란다.


 

 

정부와 언론이 왜곡하는 경제 정보를 꿰뚫어보고 건전한 민주주의 시장경제 건설을 위한 좀더 의미 있는 토론과 참여를 원하시는 분들은 김광수경제연구소포럼(http://cafe.daum.net/kseriforum)을 방문해주십시오.


by 선대인 2010. 2. 4. 09:10
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