오늘(19일) 국토부가 2009년 12월분 실거래 아파트 거래량을 발표했네요.

이 자료를 바탕으로 아파트 거래량 추이를 다시 한 번 정리해봤습니다.

편의상 국토부 보도자료 상에 나와 있는 아파트 거래량 자료를 가지고 도표화했기에

2008년 10월 이전 데이터는 거래량 고점이었던 2006년 11월밖에 없습니다.

이 자료를 살펴보면 서울 강남의 경우 급매 위주로 일부 거래량이 소폭 증가했으나,

이외 수도권 대부분 지역에서는 거래량이 급감했습니다.

특히 수도권 5개 신도시와 서울 강북 지역의 거래량 감소가 확연하네요.

거래량만으로 놓고 보면 2009년 2,3월경 수준으로 다시 돌아갔는데요,

서울과 수도권 아파트 거래량은 2006년 11월 고점 대비 약 5분의 1 수준입니다.  

그나마도 몇 달 전 설명드린 바 있듯이 이미 수도권과 서울 거래량은 5,6월 이후 거의 늘어나지 않는

흐름을 보이고 있다가 10월부터 다시 줄어들고 있습니다.

강남3구와 5개 신도시의 거래량도 6월 이후 줄어들고 있는 모습이 보입니다.

이미 5,6월부터 추가 집값 상승의 여력이 점차 바닥나고 있었던 것입니다.

이는 아파트 가격이 이미 너무 오른 가운데 언론의 선동 보도로 집 주인들이 억지로

버티고 있으나, 이미 투기적 가수요마저 거의 고갈돼 버려 거래가 끊어지고 있는 상황으로 보입니다.

이런 상황이 지속되면 '거래 실종+실거래가 하락'이라는 2007년 이후 수도권 주택시장 상황이

재연될 것으로 판단됩니다. 아직은 그 초기일뿐이집만 말입니다.

현 정부가 억지로 지연시켰던 부동산 거품 붕괴는 지금도 계속 진행되고 있는 것입니다.

하지만 아직도 "집값이 떨어질 때 집을 사라"는 식의 부동산 선동가들과 일부 언론의

선동 기사는 계속되고 있습니다. 이런 선동에 현혹되지 마시길 다시 한 번 당부드립니다.

 

 

 

 

정부와 언론이 왜곡하는 경제 정보를 꿰뚫어보고 건전한 민주주의 시장경제 건설을 위한 좀더 의미 있는 토론과 참여를 원하시는 분들은 김광수경제연구소포럼(http://cafe.daum.net/kseriforum)을 방문해주십시오.

 


by 선대인 2010. 1. 19. 12:24
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