올 들어 처음 쓰는 글입니다. 늦었지만 이 글을 읽는 모든 분들 새해에 건강하시고 행복하시길 기원합니다. 그리고 이 땅의 많은 서민들이 함께 행복하기 위해 각자의 자리에서 최선을 다하시길 바랍니다. 저도 올 한 해 더욱 열심히 노력하겠습니다. ^^

 

지난해말과 올초에 수도권 부동산 가격을 전망하는 기사들이 많이 나오고 있습니다.

지난해 집값이 오르던 8~9월까지는 "내년에 대세 상승한다"고 주장하던 많은 부동산 투기 선동가들이

이제는 시간이 지날수록 '예상치'를 낮추더니 이제는 보합세가 될 것이라는 주장도 종종 나오는군요.

이들은 자신들의 전망이 전망인지, 현상 설명인지 명확히 해야 합니다.

 

도대체 집값이 떨어질 때는 앞으로도 떨어진다고 했다가 집값이 떨어질 때는 '한동안 조정기를 거친다'고 표현하는 것이 전망입니까? 부동산 시장과 이를 둘러싼 거시경제의 구조적 흐름을 모르니 늘 현상 추종적이 될 수밖에 없는 것입니다. (이 사람들의 특징 중  또 다른 하나는 결코 '집값이 떨어진다'고 하지 않고 늘 '조정' '보합'이라는 표현을 쓰죠. 늘 집값은 오르기만 하고 집값이 떨어지는 것은 다음 집값 상승을 위한 휴지기 정도라는 것입니다. 그런 식으로 자연스럽게 사람들로 하여금 '한국의 집값은 계속 오른다'는 식으로 세뇌를 시키는 것이지요. 하지만 그것은 결국 그들의 희망 사항일뿐입니다.)

 

그런데 아직도 제 정신 아닌 엉터리들 가운데는 여전히 내년 집값이 큰 폭으로 오른다고 주장하는 모양입니다. 우리 김광수경제연구소포럼 게시판에 회원들이 퍼오는 글들을 보면 이들이 내놓는 새로운 레파토리 가운데 하나가 토지보상금 문제인 모양입니다. 사실 길게 설명할 가치도 없을 만큼 어처구니 없는 주장이지만, 일반 독자들 중에는 그런 주장에 또 혹하는 분들이 있을까봐 간단히 설명드립니다.

 

우선, 토지보상금이 풀린다 해도 부동산 시장의 흐름에 따라 그 돈의 부동산시장 유입 여부는 크게 달라질 수 있습니다.

여러분이 토지보상금을 받은 지주라고 하면 부동산 폭등기 때는 덩달아 상대적으로 부동산 투자를 많이 할 것입니다.

하지만 부동산이 가라앉으면 부동산 투자에 쉽사리 덤벼들까요?

그런데 부동산 투기선동가들은 2006년 부동산 폭등기 때의 부동산 투자 비율이

올해에도 그대로 이어질 것처럼 언급하고 있군요.

올해가 2006년과 같은 폭등기가 될까요?

  

이와 관련해 한 가지 더 고려할 것은 지금까지 대부분의 부동산 투기는

가계의 주택 담보 대출을 통한 투기였지, 토지 보상금을 기반으로 한 투기가 아닙니다.

토지 보상금은 부동산 대출 투기에 더한 플러스 알파 정도의 변수였습니다.

이를 설명하기 위해 간단히 도표 두 개만 소개하겠습니다.

 

아래 <도표1>은 지난해(2009년) 강남구 은마아파트 재건축 단지 매입자의 거주지별 비율을

나타낸 것입니다.

보시다시피 강남3구 56%를 포함해 서울 거주자가 74%를 차지합니다.

그리고 수도권이 17%, 지방이 8% 정도였습니다.

그런데 이 가운데 토지 보상금을 받은 사람들로 보이는 비율(수도권과 지방 거주자 가운데

금융권에서 빚을 2억원 이하로 얻은 사람들)은 전체 거래의 3%도 되지 않았습니다. 

이는 토지보상을 받은 지방 사람들이 대부분 현금 보유를 하거나 부동산을 사더라도

인근 부동산을 사기 때문이지 언론에서 떠드는 것처럼 수도권 원정 매매를 잘 하지 않습니다.

순진한 시골 사람들이 조상 땅 팔아 받은 보상금으로 잘 알지도 못하는, 그것도 겨우 수도권의

아파트 한 채를 산다고요?

 

 

 

대부분은 아래 <도표2>에서 보는 것처럼 금융권에서 잔뜩 빚을 내서 집을 산 사람들입니다.

금융권 대출로 집을 산 사람들의 비율을 보면 2006년 같은 폭등기 때는 약 70%였다가,

지난해 경우에는 60% 가량 됩니다.

그리고 이들의 평균 주택 대출액은 전월세를 끼고도 평균 3.4억원 가량 됐습니다.

그런데 경제 전반의 상황을 고려하면 DTI규제는 해제되기 어렵습니다.

(이에 대해서는 제가 여러 차례 설명한 바 있지만, DTI규제를 해제한다는 것은

기준금리 인상 시기를 앞당기는 여건을 조성한다는 의미입니다.

집값 부양에 올인하는 정부나 다주택 투기자 입장에서 그나마 어느쪽을 선호할까요?)

 

이런 식으로 이제 추가 주택대출은 어려운 상황이 됐습니다.

주택 구매자의 60%가 주택대출로 매매를 하는데 이게 묶여 있는 가운데,

불과 전체 거래의 2~3% 정도밖에 차지하지 않는 토지보상금 거래가 늘어난다고

집값이 얼마나 뛸까요?

 

지난해 집값이 그래도 가장 많이 뛰는 축에 든 은마아파트가 이 정도인데

집값이 움츠려든다면 얼마나 토지보상금이 몰려들까요?

참고로, 지난해 초에 환율효과로 미국 거주 교포들이 강남아파트 대거 매수에

나섰다는 보도가 여러 차례 나왔는데, 적어도 은마아파트는 아니었나 봅니다.

전체 2백수십건의 매매사례 가운데 딱 두 건 뿐이었으니까요.

 

 

 

 

그리고 내년에 정말 그 많은 토지 보상금이 일시에 다 풀릴까요?

제가 여러차례 우리 연구소가 발행하는 <경제시평>에서 다뤘지만 이미 정부 재정이나 공기업 재무구조도

굉장히 취약한 상태입니다. 특히 공기업의 자금 여력도 크게 줄어든 상태입니다.

이런 상태에서 계획대로 보상금 집행을 하기는 어렵습니다.

특히 토지보상금의 대부분을 집행하는 통합 토지주택공사는 막대한 부채에 시달리고 있는 가운데

구조조정을 진행해야 해서 자금 여력이 바닥난 상태입니다.

이 때문에 각종 공공택지나 신도시 지역의 토지보상을 뒤로 미루거나

그나마 현금 보상도 어려워 채권 보상을 하겠다고 하는 것입니다.

부동산 투기 선동가들은 올해 토지보상액을 40조 정도로 주장하고,

정부는 25조 정도로 이야기하지만 그것은 어디까지나 목표치일뿐

현금으로 실제 집행되는 액수는 그보다 훨씬 더 적을 가능성이 높습니다.  

 

이미 우리 연구소가 전국 각 지역의 부동산 실태를 조사하는 과정에서

정부나 지자체, 공기업의 자금 부족으로 토지 보상이 계속

지연되고 있는 사태를 곳곳에서 확인했습니다.

일부 언론에서 집값 투기 선동 소재로 삼기 위해

토지 보상금 집행이 최대한 내년에 몰릴 것으로 소설을 쓰지만

이처럼 현실은 그렇게 녹록지 않습니다.

 

그리고 설사 정부 발표대로 25조원이 다 집행된다고 하더라도

예년에는 없던 돈이 갑자기 한꺼번에 '25조원'이 생겨나는 것이 아닙니다.

2006년 29조, 2007년 25조 정도였던 수준과 크게 다르지 않습니다. 

2007년에 25조원이나 토지보상금이 풀렸는데, 왜 수도권 집값은 가라앉았나요?

 

수도권 주택 가격이 빠르게 가라앉으니 또 하나의 투기 선동 재료로 만들어낸

궤변에 속지 마시길 당부드립니다.

급하게 쓴 글이니 나중에 기회가 될 때 다시 좀더 자세히 써보겠습니다.


 정부와 언론이 왜곡하는 경제 정보를 꿰뚫어보고 건전한 민주주의 시장경제 건설을 위한 좀더 의미 있는 토론과 참여를 원하시는 분들은 김광수경제연구소포럼(http://cafe.daum.net/kseriforum)을 방문해주십시오.


by 선대인 2010. 1. 6. 09:20
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