편의상 국토부 보도자료 상에 나와 있는 아파트 거래량 자료를 가지고 도표화했기에

2008년 10월 이전 데이터는 거래량 고점이었던 2006년 11월밖에 없습니다.

2006년 11월 거래량과 비교해보면 올 들어 최고로 늘어났을 때도

수도권의 경우 고점 때 거래량의 3분의 1수준에 불과했다는 것을 알 수 있을 것입니다. 

그나마도 몇 달 전 설명드린 바 있듯이 이미 수도권과 서울 거래량은 5,6월 이후 거의 늘어나지 않는

흐름을 보이고 있다가 10월부터 다시 줄어들고 있습니다.

강남3구와 5개 신도시의 거래량도 6월 이후 줄어들고 있는 모습이 보입니다.

수도권 주요 아파트 단지의 실거래가 추이와 함께 보면

이미 5,6월부터 추가 집값 상승의 여력이 점차 바닥나고 있었던 것을 알 수 있습니다.

정부 DTI규제 때문에 갑자기 부동산시장이 위축된 것처럼 착각하지만

실제로는 약간의 시차는 있었겠지만, 부동산 시장은 가라앉을 수밖에 없는 상태였다고 봅니다.

물론 DTI규제가 주택 시장 침체를 가속화한 것은 분명합니다.

참고 바랍니다.

 

 

 

 

 

저희 연구소 김광수소장님 개인 명의의 첫 책 <경제학 3.0>이 출간됐습니다. 이번 책은 한국경제 전반에 대한 소장님의 통찰과 혜안을 대중적으로 널리 알리기 위해 기획한 책입니다. 12월 2일 열렸던 <2010년 경제전망> 공개세미나 동영상도 첨부돼 있어 한 해를 정리하고 새해를 준비하는 시점에 선물로도 좋은 책이 될 것으로 믿습니다. 관심 있는 분들의 많은 성원을 바랍니다. 

 

정부와 언론이 왜곡하는 경제 정보를 꿰뚫어보고 건전한 민주주의 시장경제 건설을 위한 좀더 의미 있는 토론과 참여를 원하시는 분들은 김광수경제연구소포럼(http://cafe.daum.net/kseriforum)을 방문해주십시오.


by 선대인 2009. 12. 18. 09:10
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