조선일보가 아래와 같은 제목의 기사를 보도했네요.

이 기사는 전형적인 건설업체 판촉용 기사입니다.

왜 그런지를 짧게 짚어보겠습니다.

우선, 기사 제목과 아래 링크를 통해 조선일보 기사를 한 번 살펴보십시오.

 

서울 '분양 가뭄' 계속… 강북 재개발·경기 신도시 노려라

새해 내집 마련 전략
강남은 보금자리 2곳 대기 경기도는 분양 3배 증가
2기 신도시 눈여겨볼 만

 

 

http://news.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2009/12/16/2009121601956.html

 

 

여기에서 제가 주목하는 부분은 아래와 같습니다.

 

 

서울 '분양 가뭄' 계속


“주택 수요가 가장 많은 서울은 내년에도 '분양 가뭄' 현상이 지속될 전망이다. 올해 2만8000가구 수준이던 새 아파트 분양이 내년엔 20% 가까이 줄어든다. 신규 주택 공급의 양대 축 중 하나인 재건축 시장이 규제에 묶여 있는 탓이다.”


늘 서울은 공급이 부족하다는 인상을 주는 제목과 기사 내용입니다. 그런데 서울의 주택 수요가 그렇게 많은데 왜 지금 주택 계약률이 50%도 안 되는 거지요. 주택 가격의 수준을 전혀 감안하지 않고 수요, 공급을 논하는 것 자체가 웃기는 것입니다. 그리고 수도권의 경우 광역적으로 거주지 이동이 매우 활발하게 일어나는데 그런 특성을 전혀 무시하고 매번 서울로 주택 수요가 집중될 것처럼 표현하며 주택 공급이 부족하다는 인상을 심는 것입니다. ‘집값이 오른다’는 사람들 계산법으로 ‘주택 수요가 가장 많다’는 서울 강남 3구의 주택보급률은 2009년 기준으로 평균 110%에 육박하는데도 여전히 공급이 부족하답니다. 그 분들 계산법대로라면 주택보급률이 가장 낮은 금천구, 강북구 같은 곳의 집값이 가장 높아야 할 텐데 현실은 정반대입니다.


그리고 분양을 거의 하지 않았던 올해 상반기를 포함한 연간 기준으로 잡으니 그렇지 올해 하반기와 내년 상반기까지 서울에서 쏟아지는 총 공급 물량은 연간 기준으로 6만호에 이를 정도로 서울에서도 공급이 넘쳐납니다. 닥터아파트 같은 곳에서는 주로 대단지 위주로 집계를 하는데 이 경우 경기도와 인천의 경우 택지가 넓어 대부분 아파트가 집계되는 반면 서울의 경우에는 집계에서 빠져나가는 아파트가 많습니다.


그리고 재건축 시장이 규제에 묶여 있어서 공급이 안 된다고요? 지금보다 규제가 더 심했을 때도 재건축이 이뤄졌습니다. 규제 때문이 아니라 이미 대부분의 강남 재건축 단지가 사업성이 없어졌을 정도로 가격이 너무 올라 사업 추진이 도저히 이뤄질 수 없는 단계까지 와 버렸기 때문에 공급이 이뤄지지 않는 것입니다. 마치 규제를 풀면 사업이 추진될 것처럼 말하지만, 규제를 풀어도 예를 들어, 용적률을 300%까지 허용해도 사업성이 없을 정도로 이미 집값이 올라있습니다. 이달초 열렸던 우리 연구소 강연회에 오셨던 분들은 소장님께서 보여드린 은마아파트 재건축 사업성 시뮬레이션 결과를 보셨을 테니 잘 아실 것입니다.

 

그리고 서울은 ‘분양 가뭄’이라면서 경기도 물량이 3배나 증가하는 것을 두고는 절대 ‘공급 과잉’이라는 표현을 쓰지 않지요. 그럴 때 이들 언론사들은 항상 위의 기사에서 보는 것처럼 ‘청약 기회’ ‘내 집 마련의 기회’라는 식으로 표현하죠.

 

저는 신문기자 출신으로서 왜 이런 메커니즘이 작동하는지 잘 알고 있습니다. 제가 이전 글들에서 여러 차례 말씀드린 바 있습니다. 이건 정말 제대로 된 언론 보도라기보다는 건설업자들의 분양 물량 판촉 기사일 뿐입니다. 

 

하지만 이런 기사들이 하도 쏟아지니 많은 분들이 이를 당연하게 받아들이게 됩니다. 그렇게 해서 많은 분들이 자연스럽게 '세뇌'가 되지요. 매트릭스는 영화에만 나오는 게 아닙니다. 이 땅에도 정도의 차이는 있지만 '매트릭스' 구조가 자리잡고 있습니다. 매트릭스에서 빠져나올 수 있기를 바랍니다.

 

 

 

정부와 언론이 왜곡하는 경제 정보를 꿰뚫어보고 건전한 민주주의 시장경제 건설을 위한 좀더 의미 있는 토론과 참여를 원하시는 분들은 김광수경제연구소포럼(http://cafe.daum.net/kseriforum)을 방문해주십시오.


by 선대인 2009. 12. 17. 12:58
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