미분양 물량은 현재의 집값 침체 양상이 얼마나 지속될 것인지를 보여주는 주요 변수 가운데 하나이다. 주택 공급에는 보통 3년 가량의 시차가 발생한다는 점에서 부동산 버블기에 이뤄진 과도한 미분양 물량은 상당기간 주택시장을 짓누를 수 있기 때문이다.

 

알다시피 전국 미분양 물량이 16만호를 넘어선 데서 알 수 있듯이 현재 유효 수요에 비해 주택은 매우 과잉 공급된 상태다. 아래 <도표>에서 알 수 있듯이 200만호 주택건설 사업의 여파로 1990년대 초중반 내내 부동산 시장이 가라앉은 후에도 주택 공급이 계속돼 미분양 물량이 꾸준히 늘어났다. 관련 통계가 작성되기 시작한 1993년부터 이미 미분양 물량은 크게 늘어나 1995년 미분양 물량은 15만 호를 넘어섰다.


 

 (주) 각종 자료로부터 KSERI 작성


주택 가격이 91년부터 하락하기 시작했으므로 (그래프상으로 주택 가격이 크게 하락한 이후인 93년부터 보면 명목가격지수는 크게 안 떨어진 것으로 나오지만 물가상승률을 반영한 실질가격지수로는 외환위기 때까지 거의 반토막나는 것으로 나타난다. 그 점을 감안해서 보기 바란다) 사실 미분양 물량은 91년부터 꾸준히 증가했을 것으로 판단된다. 더구나 당시에는 건설업계가 극심한 자금난에 시달리며 금융시장의 눈치를 살펴야 하는 상황이 아니었으므로 공식 미분양 물량과 비공식 미분양 물량의 괴리가 크지 않았을 것으로 짐작된다. 그런데도 95년 공식적으로만 15만여 호를 넘어선 미분양 물량이 해소되는 데에 최소 4~5년 이상 걸렸다고 할 수 있다.


그러면 지금 16만호를 넘는 미분양 물량이 해소되는 데에는 얼마나 걸릴까? 부동산시장 안팎의 여러 여건을 고려하면 그때보다 더 오랜 시간이 걸릴 것으로 판단된다. 그렇게 판단하는 이유는 앞서 외환위기 직후처럼 반등할 수 없는 이유와 겹치는 부분이 많다. 


우선, 당시에는 가계 저축률이 20%를 넘어설 정도로 여윳돈도 있었지만 지금은 부동산 담보대출310조원과 2%대의 가계 저축률이 말해주듯 가계의 매수 여력이 고갈된 상태다. 사실 지금은 그 동안 무리하게 집을 산 가계들이 빚 청산과 채무 조정을 하기에 바쁘다. 또 당시에는 경제성장률과 가계의 소득 증가율도 지금보다 훨씬 높았다. 지금은 우리 경제의 마이너스 성장이 기정사실화돼 있고, 가계의 실질소득도 감소할 가능성이 높다. 또 90년대에는 한국의 수출대상인 세계 경기가 호조를 보였지만, 지금은 전 세계가 대공황 이후 최대의 경제위기를 맞고 있으며, 조기 회복이 어려운 상황이다. 2000년대 부동산 버블이 가장 극심했던 수도권의 경우로 한정해본다면 당시에는 수도권으로 매년 20만~30만명이 순유입됐고 인구 자연 증가폭도 컸지만, 2008년 수도권 순유입 인구는 5.2만명으로 줄었고, 자연인구 증가폭도 크게 줄었다. 향후 추이를 생각한다면 수도권 미분양 물량 해소는 90년대와 비교할 수 없이 어려울 가능성이 높다.


무엇보다 중요한 변수는 현재의 미분양물량 16만호는 최고점이 아니라는 사실이다. 앞으로 한동안 미분양 물량은 더 늘어날 가능성이 높다. 국토해양부에 따르면 4월 미분양 물량은 16만 5641호로 사상 최고치를 다시 기록했다. 수도권에서만 약 3415호가 늘었다. 건설업체들이 4월말까지 설정된 미분양 주택 양도세 감면 혜택을 받기 위해 그 동안 감춰둔 미분양 물량을 추가로 신고한 때문이다. 필자가 한 건설업체임원에게 들은 얘기로는 현재 공식 미분양 물량의 70~80%를 감춰놓고 신고하지 않고 있다고 한다. 실제 미분양 물량은 약 25만호 전후라는 것이다. 사실 이는 공공연한 비밀이기도 하다.


미분양이 늘어나면 공급과잉이라는 신호이므로 집값과 분양가를 충분히 낮춰 미분양 물량을 해소하는 것이 자연스러운데, 그런 노력은 매우 미흡하다. 대신 건설업계는 정부 부양책에 기대 사람들에게 투기바람을 잔뜩 집어넣어 어떻게든 미분양 물량을 해소하려고 하는 것이다. 정부가 1만 3000호 가량 미분양 물량을 매입해주고, 대규모 공공토건사업으로 건설업체에 유동성을 지급해주는 것에 기대 그 같은 임시변통책을 내놓고 있지만 이런 식으로는 절대 비공식으로 25만호에 이르는 미분양물량을 해소하지 못한다. 아마 현재 상태 미분양 물량을 해소하는 데만 4~5년 이상 걸릴 것이다.


그런데 이 미분양 물량이 해소가 되기도 전에 지속적으로 아파트 공급이 늘어나게 된다. 특히 수도권의 미분양 물량은 2008년부터 본격적으로 증가하고 있다는 점을 주목해야 한다. 90년대 초중반 미분양 물량이 지속적으로 늘어난 데는 부동산 시장 침체 속에 뒤늦게 200만호 주택 공급이 본격적으로 이뤄진 탓이 크다. 그런데 2006년경부터 본격화된 제2기 수도권 신도시 사업 과 이명박 대통령이 서울시장 시절 한꺼번에 지정한 뉴타운 등에서 쏟아져 나오는 물량은 2010년 이후 본격적으로 쏟아진다. 또 2009~2010년에는 뉴타운 지역에서 기존 주택, 특히 중소형 주택들을 대거 밀어내니 오히려 주거공급을 줄이는 효과를 나타내지만, 2011년이 넘어가면 중대형 위주의 아파트 공급 폭탄으로 돌아오게 돼 있다. 2010년대 주택시장은 만성적인 공급 과잉 상태가 되는 것이다. 따라서 미분양은 줄기는커녕 계속 늘어날 가능성이 높다. 이런 상황에서도 "주택건설(인허가)실적이 줄어 2~3년 후 집값이 뛸 것"이라는 엉터리 보도가 난무하니 한심하기 짝이 없다.


물론 주택경기가 계속 악화되면 주택 공급 물량이 줄어들 수 있지 않느냐고 반문할 수 있다. 물론 어느 정도는 그렇다. 하지만, 그 같은 주택공급은 유효수요에 대비해 상대적 관점에서 보는 것이 정확하다. 이미 유효수요(용어설명)에 비해 지나치게 공급돼 있고 이미 몇 년치 수요를 투기 바람을 불러일으켜 당겨 소진해버린 상황이다. 이런 상황에서 주택 공급이 상대적으로 줄어든다고 해서 당장 미분양 물량을 단기간 내에 해소할 수 있을 것으로 보는 것은 착각이다. 더구나 현재 예정된 물량들은 이미 토지보상이 이뤄지고, 분양되거나 일정한 행정적 절차가 진행돼 조금 늦춰지더라도 공급 자체가 안 될 수 없는 상황이다. 당장 상반기에 버블세븐이 꿈틀거리고 인천 청라 등에서 분양 바람을 일으키는데 성공하니까 당장 5월의 수도권 분양 물량이 2만 가구에 육박하고 있다. 주택건설업체들이 기회를 봐서 분양하려는 물량들을 막대하게 보유하고 있다는 증거다.


주택건설업체들 사정을 보더라도 주택경기가 얼어붙는다고 해서 건설업체들이 분양 안 하고 주택 안 지을 수는 없다. 거꾸로 건설업체들은 어떻게 보면 막대한 미분양물량에 자금이 묶여 자금난에 시달리고 있기 때문에 어떤 식으로든 분양해서 ‘자금 돌려막기’를 할 수밖에 없는 형편이다. 각 건설업체들이 분양수입이 없는 채로 이미 사놓은 2~3년치 주택을 지을 수 있는 땅들을 금융비용만 계속 지출하면서 놀릴 수 있을까.


실제로 2009년 건설업체들이 계획하고 있는 분양 물량 대부분이 수도권에 몰려 있다. 아예 어떤 건설업체들은 거의 100% 수도권 분양으로만 채운 경우도 있다. 지방은 이미 극도의 주택시장 침체에 빠져 있으니 상대적으로 상황이 양호한 수도권 시장에서 승부를 보려는 것이다. 하지만 대부분 건설업체들이 거의 비슷한 경영판단을 하고 있다. 결국 수도권 분양에 사활을 건 건설업체들의 분양 물량이 쏟아진다고 할 때 미분양은 더욱 더 늘어날 수밖에 없다. 가뜩이나 수도권 미분양 물량이 잔뜩 쌓여 있는 상황에서 엎친 데 덮친 격이 될 가능성이 높은 것이다.


그나마 정부가 외환위기 이후 3배 이상 늘어난 건설업체들의 자연스러운 구조조정을 유도했으면 그나마 주택 공급이 줄어들 것이다. 그런데 정부가 대대적 부양책을 동원해 구조조정을 사실상 막고 있다. 정부가 말로는 ‘구조조정’을 떠들어대지만, '버티면 결국 정부가 도와준다'는 것을 경험한 건설업체들이 자발적으로 구조조정을 하겠는가? 최대한 버틸 수 있는 데까지 버틸 것이다. 그러는 가운데 상당수 기업들이 좀비기업으로 전락해 ‘정부 재정 호흡기’로 간신히 연명하면서 주택사업을 계속 벌이게 될 것이다. 그것이 심화되면 결국 공급 초과로 덤핑경쟁이 벌어져 분양가를 지속적으로 낮출 수밖에 없다.


‘미분양 아파트 분양가 인하 도미노’

(http://www.edaily.co.kr/News/FundEstate/NewsRead.asp?sub_cd=HE21&newsid=01584246589690888&clkcode=&DirCode=00603&OutLnkChk=Y)


‘대형건설사의 굴욕...미분양 앞에 장사 없다’

(http://media.daum.net/economic/estate/view.html?cateid=100019&newsid=20090610145015549&p=akn&t__nil_economy=uptxt&nil_id=1)


등등의 기사 보도에서 보듯이 이미 그 같은 징후가 곳곳에서 나타나고 있다.


이는 아직 초기 단계일뿐 앞으로 이런 상황은 향후 더욱 확대되고 분양가 인하폭도 커질 공산이 크다. 회사 브랜드 이미지 훼손이나 기존 계약자들의 반발이라는 리스크가 있다고 하더라도 부도 위험에 내몰리는 것보다는 낫기 때문이다. 이렇게 분양가 세일이 더욱 확대되면 기존 주택 가격의 하락에도 영향을 미칠 수밖에 없다. 분양 당시의 고분양가가 주변 집값을 끌어올린 것과 정반대의 효과를 보이는 것이다. 주택 수요자 입장에서는 결코 서두를 이유가 없는 것이다.


자, 이런 점들을 고려할 때 현재의 미분양물량을 해소하는데 몇 년 정도가 걸릴까? 지금보다 부동산시장 안팎의 여건이 훨씬 좋았던 90년대 초중반에도 4~5년 이상 걸렸으니 현 상황에서는 이보다는 더 오랜 시간이 걸린다고 봐야 합당하지 않을까. 그렇다고 4~5년 후면 주택시장이 침체에서 벗어날 것이라는 말은 아니다. 국내외 경기 침체의 장기화와 가계의 부동산 부채 청산 기간 등 현재의 문제뿐만 아니라 2010년대 이후 본격 전개될 급속한 고령화와 베이비붐 세대의 은퇴, 새로운 주택시장 유입층인 젊은 세대의 소득 감소, 수도권 순유입 인구의 추세적 감소 등의 이유로 주택시장은 일본형 장기 침체를 겪을 가능성도 상당하다.

 

 

모든 사람이 땀흘린만큼 제대로 대접받는 건전한 민주주의 시장경제 건설을 위한 좀더 의미 있는 토론과 참여를 원하시는 분들은 김광수경제연구소포럼(http://cafe.daum.net/kseriforum)을 방문해주십시오.



by 선대인 2009. 6. 12. 10:03
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