3~4월 버블 세븐을 중심으로 일부 지역에서 집값이 반등하자 다시 집값 상승이 지속될 것이라는 터무니없는 낭설들이 인터넷을 떠돌고 있다. 그동안 필자의 글을 꾸준히 읽어본 사람들이라면 그들의 주장이 얼마나 근시안적이고 근거가 부족한지를 잘 알 수 있을 것이다. 하지만 여전히 그런 선동에 넘어가는 사람들 또한 상대적으로 소수이지만 있는 것 같다. 이럴 때일수록 필자는 큰 그림을 보라고 말한다. 오늘 소개하는 것도 그런 큰 그림 중의 하나다.

한국의 부동산 버블이 얼마나 과도하며 향후 어떤 식으로 꺼질 것인지를 아래 <도표>를 참고로 추정해보도록 하자. <도표>는 한미일 3국의 물가지수와 명목 주택가격 추이, 그리고 두 지수의 차이를 도표로 나타낸 것이다. 미국의 주택가격 지수(케이스-쉴러지수)는 한국의 서울이나 수도권에 대응하는 미국 10대 도시 가격지수를 사용했으며, 일본 역시 도쿄, 오사카, 나고야 등 3대 도시의 주택가격지수를 사용했다.

이 도표를 통해 직관적으로 알 수 있듯이 역사적으로 한 경제 내에서 주택 가격이 물가 수준을 지속적으로 뛰어넘어 무한히 상승하는 것은 불가능하다. 물론 부동산 버블이 발생할 때 상당 기간에 걸쳐 물가 수준을 뛰어넘어 버블 주택가격이 유지되기도 하지만 긴 흐름에서 보면 결국 물가 수준으로 수렴될 가능성이 높다고 할 수 있다.

 


<
도표3> 한미일 3국 물가 및 주택가격 추이

                      ㈜ 각종 자료로부터 KSERI 작성


  우선, 일본을 보면 1986년부터 주택가격이 급격히 상승해 1991년 정점을 기록했다가 이후 지속적으로 하락해 2003년경에야 물가지수 수준 아래로 떨어지는 것을 알 수 있다. 일본의 경우 이미 여러 차례 지적한 바 있듯이 버블 붕괴 시기에 부실채권 정리 및 건설, 금융업 등의 구조조정 지연, 급속한
고령화와 인구감소 추세, 부동산 거품 붕괴 여파 등이 맞물리며 소비자물가지수 이하 수준에서도 상당 기간 주택 가격이 머무르고 있다.

미국의 경우에도 1980년대 후반에 주택 가격이 물가지수 수준을 약간 상회하여 상승했으나, 이후 1990년대 내내 물가지수 수준을 밑돌았다. 하지만 2000년대 들어 주택가격이 급상승하면서 2006 6월에 정점을 찍고 이후부터 서브프라임론 사태가 본격화되면서 빠른 속도로 부동산 거품이 꺼지고 있다. 2009 2월 현재 미국 10대 도시의 주택가격은 고점 대비 약 30% 가량 하락했는데, 케이스-쉴러 지수의 창안자 가운데 한 사람인 쉴러 교수를 비롯한 상당수의 전문가들이 10~15% 정도의 주택가격 추가 하락을 전망하고 있다. 각 전문가들의 그 같은 전망이 위 도표에서 나타난 바와 같이 현재 미국 주택가격이 물가지수 수준과 보이는 격차와 비슷하다는 점을 알 수 있다. 또한 일본의 경우에서 알 수 있듯이 미국 또한 부동산 버블이 해소된 뒤에도 상당한 기간 동안 주택가격이 회복하지 못하고 바닥권에서 최소 수 년 동안 머무를 가능성이 높아 보인다.


  마지막으로, 한국의 경우 지난해 하반기부터 아파트 가격이 하락하는 초기단계에 진입하고 있으며 아직 부동산 거품이 거의 해소되지 않고 있음을 알 수 있다. 서울의 경우 아파트 가격과 소비자물가지수와의 갭은 부동산 버블 정점기의 일본이나 미국에 비해 결코 적지 않음을 알 수 있다. 따라서 한국의 주택 가격도 어떤 식으로든 미국이나 일본처럼 부동산 거품이 상당한 기간에 걸쳐서 빠질 수밖에 없다. 그 과정에서 상당한 충격이 동반되는 것 또한 불가피하다.다만 한 가지 분명한 것은 현재의 과도한 주택가격 수준이나 주택가격이 상승해온 기간 그리고 향후 전개될 한국 사회경제의 상황을 고려할 때 한국 역시 한계 상황에 이르게 되면 부동산 거품이 급격하게 붕괴될 가능성이 높아 보인다. 또한 거품 해소 기간 측면에서는, 1980년대말과 비교해볼 때 물가지수와의 갭이나 가계 부채의 규모 등을 생각하면 부동산 거품이 완전히 해소되는 데에 10년 가까운 세월이 걸릴지도 모른다.


부동산 버블 붕괴를 어느 정도 억지로 지연시킬 수는 있어도 막을 수는 없다. 과도한 버블일수록 더더욱 그렇다. 그것은 지금까지 자본주의 역사가 거의 단 한 차례 예외도 없이 입증한 바다. 한국만이 예외가 될 것이라는 생각은 허무맹랑한 공상에 가깝다. 부동산 시장의 가격 메커니즘에 따라 부동산 버블이 자연스럽게 해소되도록 하는 것이 순리다. 현 정부는 각종 부동산 투기 조장책들로 오히려 버블을 더욱 키우려 하고 있다. 하지만 그렇게 하면 할수록 부동산에 국가 전체의 자원이 묶여 새로운 경제활로를 찾는 시간이 늦어진다. 또 부동산 버블이 안에서 계속 곪아 어느 순간 급격하게 터져버릴 가능성이 더 높아질 뿐이다. 그 때에는 대책도 없다.

 


모든 사람이 땀흘린만큼 제대로 대접받는 건전한 민주주의 시장경제 건설을 위한 좀더 의미 있는 토론과 참여를 원하시는 분들은 김광수경제연구소포럼(http://cafe.daum.net/kseriforum)을 방문해주십시오.


by 선대인 2009. 6. 4. 09:04
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