요즘 군소 경제신문들을 중심으로 엉터리 보도들이 난무하니 마치 지금 집값 오르는 것이 대세인 양 착각하고 있는 분들이 많습니다. 지속된 저금리 기조와 원리금 상환 만기 연장으로 버틸 힘을 얻은 잠재 매도자들이 정부와 엉터리 언론의 각종 투기 선동책으로 집값이 일시 반등한 것 사실입니다. 그런데 이제 다시 내려갈 조짐을 보이고 있습니다. 2000년대 수도권의 집값 상승-하락 패턴을 보면 용머리에 해당하는 강남 집값이 오른 뒤 점점 여타 지역으로 올랐다가, 다시 같은 순서로 용머리부터 떨어져 다시 떨어지는 현상을 보입니다. 좀더 지켜봐야 하겠지만, 강남 재건축은 확실히 매수세가 따라 붙지 않으면서 호가가 계속 빠지고 매매가도 떨어졌습니다. (http://www.seoul.co.kr/news/newsView.php?id=20090518017003

‘서울·신도시 아파트값 상승세 꺾여’ 기사 참조 ) 다른 지역의 상승세도 한 풀 꺾이면서 이제 다시 집값이 떨어지는 패턴을 보일 가능성이 높습니다. 벌써 집값 상승-하락의 선행지표라고 할 수 있는 경매 낙찰율이 다시 떨어지고 있습니다. (http://www.asiae.co.kr/uhtml/read.jsp?idxno=2009051910251153188

강남 '경매 매각가율' 하락.. 분당 상승세도 '움찔' 기사 참조)



그리고 많은 분들이 잘 모르는데, 지난해 경기 남부 시장을 얼어붙게 했던 ‘입주 물량’의 70% 가량이 올 하반기에 몰려 있습니다. 올 상반기에는 입주 물량이 적은데다 정부의 투기 조장책과 성급한 경기 회복 기대감으로 헛바람이 들어 부동산 가격이 일시 반등한 것입니다. 하지만 하반기에 대규모 입주물량 폭탄이 쏟아지면 다시 역전세난과 집값 하락이 재현될 가능성이 높습니다. 그리고 본격적인 입주물량 폭탄은 내년에 터집니다. 아래 <도표>를 보시면 수도권의 주택 건설(인허가)실적은 2007년에 30만호를 넘었습니다. 분양가상한제를 앞두고 밀어내기 분양한 물량들이 2007년 하반기에 대거 몰리면서 빚어진 현상입니다. 이 분양 물량들의 입주물량은 대부분 내년에 도래합니다. 2000년대 초반과 같은 부동산 활황기이면 모를까 지금 같은 침체기에 이 정도 물량을 받아줄 수 있을까요?

 


지금 인천 청라와 송도에서 분양 과열이니 이야기를 하지만 인천 청라와 송도를 제외하고는 전국 어디에서 분양이 성공하고 있는지 잘 한 번 보십시오. 없습니다. 인천 청라는 1년 후 분양권 전매가 되고, 분양가 상한제로 인근 다른 아파트보다 평당 100만원 이상 싸고, 양도소득세 등이 감면되기 때문에 한 마디로 잘만 하면 한 번 먹고 튈 수 있다고 생각하는 것 같습니다. 한 마디로 투기판입니다. 이런 상황을 이용해서 지금 미분양물량으로 자금이 매인 건설업체들이 ‘떴다방’들을 동원해 이런 투기 바람을 더욱 부추기고, 임직원 가족들까지 동원해 바람을 잡았습니다. 인천 청라 지구는 분양 물량이 너무나 대규모이기 때문에 여기에서 대규모 미분양이 나면 업체들로서는 곡소리 나게 돼 있습니다. 그래서 바람을 잡기 위해 사활을 건 것입니다. 광고매출이 지난해보다 절반으로 줄어든 군소 경제지들에 광고물량 헐값에 주고 엄청난 선동기사들을 양산한 것입니다. 그런데 조금만 시야를 넓혀볼까요? 지금 대규모 분양이 이뤄진다는 것은 무엇을 뜻할까요? 2~3년 후부터 대규모 입주물량 폭탄으로 이어진다는 말입니다.


멀리 갈 것도 없이 올해 하반기부터 물량폭탄이 터집니다. 올 7월 논현지구의 한화물량 1·622가구, 1298가구를 포함해 내년까지 1만 2000여가구가 입주합니다. 내년에는 송도에서 2008가구, 청라에서 7957가구가 들어섭니다. 인천 시내에서도 올해 10월 중구 운남동에서 1022가구, 서구 신현동에서 2966가구가 입주합니다. 이렇게 물량폭탄이 이어지는 가운데 분양물량도 계속 증가합니다. 내년 신규 분양 물량은 3만310가구에 이릅니다. 이뿐인가요? 한강신도시와 검단신도 등 서울에서 더 가까운 신도시에서도 신규공급이 넘쳐납니다. 이런 추세가 향후 계속될 텐데 인천 집값이 오를 수 있을까요? 지금 인천 청라에서 분양받은 분들은 정부의 투기 조장책에 힘입어 ‘피’만 챙기고 빠져나오겠다는 사람이 대부분입니다. 인천경제특별구역이라고 하지만 아파트 개발말고 진척된 사업이 없는데 얼마나 많은 사람들이 거기에서 실수요자로 살겠습니까? 그런데 앞서 말한 물량 폭탄 때문에 아마 이들은 ‘피’를 챙기기는커녕 ‘피박’ 쓸 가능성이 높습니다.


미분양물량에 대해 말씀드릴까요? 며칠 전 발표한 국토해양부 자료를 보면 미분양 물량이 사상 최고치를 다시 기록한 것을 아실 겁니다. 경기도에서만 약 3500호 이상 늘었습니다. 건설업체들이 양도세 감면 혜택을 받기 위해 미분양 물량으로 신고한 물량이 나온 것입니다. 제가 동부건설 임원한테 들은 얘기로는 지금 공식 미분양 물량의 70~80%를 감춰놓고 신고하지 않고 있다고 합니다. 미분양이 늘어나면 공급과잉이어서 집값과 분양가를 낮추면 되는데 그렇게 하지 않고 아직도 사람들에게 투기바람을 잔뜩 집어넣어 어떻게든 부동산 폭탄을 떠넘기려 하는 것입니다. 정부가 1만 3000호 가량 미분양 물량을 매입해주고, 대규모 공공토건사업으로 유동성을 지급해주는 것에 기대 그렇게 대국민 사기극을 벌이고 있는 것입니다. 하지만 이런 식으로는 절대 비공식 물량까지 25만호에 이르는 미분양물량을 해소하지 못합니다. 아마 현재 상태 미분양 물량을 해소하는 데만 4~5년 이상 걸릴 겁니다.


그런데 이게 해소가 될까요? 위에서도 말씀드렸지만, 엄청난 규모의 입주물량 폭탄이 2010년부터 본격화됩니다. 각종 제 2기 신도시 물량도 2010년, 2011년부터 본격적으로 쏟아집니다. 서울과 경기도의 뉴타운 지역 물량도 2010년 이후 본격화됩니다. 지금은 뉴타운 지역에서 기존 주택, 특히 중소형 주택들을 대거 밀어내니 오히려 주거공급을 줄이는 효과를 나타내지만, 2011년이 넘어가면 그때는 중대형 위주의 아파트 공급 폭탄으로 돌아옵니다. 2010년대 주택시장에서는 만성적인 공급 과잉 상태가 됩니다. 미분양은 줄기는커녕 계속 늘어날 가능성이 높습니다.


그런데도 아직 언론에서는 주택건설(인허가)실적이 줄어 2~3년 후 집값이 뛸 것이라는 얘기밖에  안 나오죠? 아이러니하지만 거의 같은 시기에 주택착공 면적이 늘었다는 기사는 보셨나요? (http://www.mt.co.kr/view/mtview.php?type=1&no=2009051110087010224&outlink=1

‘3월 주거용 건물 착공, 1년 새 80% 증가’ 기사 참조) 주택건설실적이 통계상으로 안 좋은 것은 건설업체들이 주택경기가 좀 풀리면 분양하려고 유보하고 있었던 것입니다. 그러다가 버블세븐이 들썩거리고 인천 청라에서 분양 바람을 일으키는데 성공하니까 당장 이 달 수도권 분양 물량이 2만가구에 육박하고 있습니다. 주택경기가 얼어붙는다고 해서 건설업체들이 분양 안 하고 주택 안 지을 수 있을까요? 지금 엄청난 미분양으로 자금난에 시달리고 있지만, 걔네들은 어떤 식으로든 분양해서 자금 돌려막기를 할 수밖에 없는 형편입니다. 분양수입이 없이 각 건설업체들이 사놓은 2~3년치 주택을 지을 수 있는 땅들을 금융비용만 계속 지출하면서 놀릴 수 있을까요? 물론 그 중 일부는 토공이나 다른 건설업체에 팔아넘기거나 지연시킬 수 있겠지만, 얼마나 그런 식으로 버틸 수 있을까요? 결국 주택을 계속 쏟아낼 수밖에 없습니다.


그런데 정부가 시장 흐름에 맡겨 외환위기 이후 3.5배 가량 늘어난 건설업체들이 구조조정되도록 했으면 그나만 주택 공급이 좀 줄어들 겁니다. 그런데 정부가 대대적 부양책을 동원해 구조조정을 사실상 막고 있습니다. 정부가 말로는 ‘구조조정’을 떠들어대지만, '버티면 결국 정부가 도와준다'는 것을 경험한 건설업체들이 자발적으로 구조조정할까요? 최대한 버틸 수 있는 데까지 버틸 겁니다. 그러면서 상당수 기업들이 좀비기업으로 ‘정부 재정 호흡기’로 연명하며 주택사업을 벌이겠죠? 그러면서 공급 초과로 결국 덤핑경쟁이 벌어지고 분양가가 지속적으로 떨어질 것입니다.( http://www.edaily.co.kr/News/FundEstate/NewsRead.asp?sub_cd=HE21&newsid=01584246589690888&clkcode=&DirCode=00603&OutLnkChk=Y, ‘미분양 아파트 분양가 인하 도미노’ 기사 참조. 아직 초기 단계일뿐 앞으로 이런 상황은 더욱 확대되고 분양가 인하폭도 커질 것입니다.) 결국 건설업계 전반이 서서히 공멸로 치닫고 점점 깊은 침체의 늪으로 빠질 가능성이 높습니다. 인구, 가구가 줄고, 그 가구의 소득이 줄고, 집값은 계속 떨어지는데 투기바람도 못 일으킵니다. 그렇게 침체의 늪으로 빠져들면 결국 수면 아래에서 계속 건설업계와 가계의 부실 채권이 늘어나 금융권도 위태로워질 수 있습니다. 1990년대 일본이 걸어갔던 길과 매우 유사합니다. 


현 정부가 이 같은 길을 피할 수 있기를 바라지만, ‘강부자정권’ ‘건설족정부’인 현 정부는 오로지 자신들 임기내에 돌아오는 경제적 충격을 최소화하기 위해 한국경제를 장기 침체의 늪으로 몰아넣고 있습니다.




모든 사람이 땀흘린만큼 제대로 대접받는 건전한 민주주의 시장경제 건설을 위한 좀더 의미 있는 토론과 참여를 원하시는 분들은 김광수경제연구소포럼(http://cafe.daum.net/kseriforum)을 방문해주십시오.

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